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    Mathematics of Chance

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    Mathematics of Chance utilizes simple, real-world problems-some of which have only recently been solved-to explain fundamental probability theorems, methods, and statistical reasoning. Jiri Andel begins with a basic introduction to probability theory and its important points before moving on to more specific sections on vital aspects of probability, using both classic and modern problems. Each chapter begins with easy, realistic examples before covering the general formulations and mathematical treatments used. The reader will find ample use for a chapter devoted to matrix games and problem sets concerning waiting, probability calculations, expectation calculations, and statistical methods. A special chapter utilizes problems that relate to areas of mathematics outside of statistics and considers certain mathematical concepts from a probabilistic point of view. Sections and problems cover topics including: * Random walks * Principle of reflection * Probabilistic aspects of records * Geometric distribution * Optimization * The LAD method, and more Knowledge of the basic elements of calculus will be sufficient in understanding most of the material presented here, and little knowledge of pure statistics is required. Jiri Andel has produced a compact reference for applied statisticians working in industry and the social and technical sciences, and a book that suits the needs of students seeking a fundamental understanding of probability theory.

    Comparative Statistical Inference

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    This fully updated and revised third edition, presents a wide ranging, balanced account of the fundamental issues across the full spectrum of inference and decision-making. Much has happened in this field since the second edition was published: for example, Bayesian inferential procedures have not only gained acceptance but are often the preferred methodology. This book will be welcomed by both the student and practising statistician wishing to study at a fairly elementary level, the basic conceptual and interpretative distinctions between the different approaches, how they interrelate, what assumptions they are based on, and the practical implications of such distinctions. As in earlier editions, the material is set in a historical context to more powerfully illustrate the ideas and concepts. Includes fully updated and revised material from the successful second edition Recent changes in emphasis, principle and methodology are carefully explained and evaluated Discusses all recent major developments Particular attention is given to the nature and importance of basic concepts (probability, utility, likelihood etc) Includes extensive references and bibliography Written by a well-known and respected author, the essence of this successful book remains unchanged providing the reader with a thorough explanation of the many approaches to inference and decision making.

    Linear Statistical Models

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    Linear Statistical Models Developed and refined over a period of twenty years, the material in this book offers an especially lucid presentation of linear statistical models. These models lead to what is usually called «multiple regression» or «analysis of variance» methodology, which, in turn, opens up a wide range of applications to the physical, biological, and social sciences, as well as to business, agriculture, and engineering. Unlike similar books on this topic, Linear Statistical Models emphasizes the geometry of vector spaces because of the intuitive insights this approach brings to an understanding of the theory. While the focus is on theory, examples of applications, using the SAS and S-Plus packages, are included. Prerequisites include some familiarity with linear algebra, and probability and statistics at the postcalculus level. Major topics covered include: * Methods of study of random vectors, including the multivariate normal, chi-square, t and F distributions, central and noncentral * The linear model and the basic theory of regression analysis and the analysis of variance * Multiple regression methods, including transformations, analysis of residuals, and asymptotic theory for regression analysis. Separate sections are devoted to robust methods and to the bootstrap. * Simultaneous confidence intervals: Bonferroni, Scheffe, Tukey, and Bechhofer * Analysis of variance, with two- and three-way analysis of variance * Random component models, nested designs, and balanced incomplete block designs * Analysis of frequency data through log-linear models, with emphasis on vector space viewpoint. This chapter alone is sufficient for a course on the analysis of frequency data.

    Markov Decision Processes

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    The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. «This text is unique in bringing together so many results hitherto found only in part in other texts and papers. . . . The text is fairly self-contained, inclusive of some basic mathematical results needed, and provides a rich diet of examples, applications, and exercises. The bibliographical material at the end of each chapter is excellent, not only from a historical perspective, but because it is valuable for researchers in acquiring a good perspective of the MDP research potential.» —Zentralblatt fur Mathematik «. . . it is of great value to advanced-level students, researchers, and professional practitioners of this field to have now a complete volume (with more than 600 pages) devoted to this topic. . . . Markov Decision Processes: Discrete Stochastic Dynamic Programming represents an up-to-date, unified, and rigorous treatment of theoretical and computational aspects of discrete-time Markov decision processes.» —Journal of the American Statistical Association

    Empirical Model Building

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    A hands-on approach to the basic principles of empirical model building. Includes a series of real-world statistical problems illustrating modeling skills and techniques. Covers models of growth and decay, systems where competition and interaction add to the complexity of the model, and discusses both classical and nonclassical data analysis methods.

    Nonlinear Statistical Models

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    A comprehensive text and reference bringing together advances in the theory of probability and statistics and relating them to applications. The three major categories of statistical models that relate dependent variables to explanatory variables are covered: univariate regression models, multivariate regression models, and simultaneous equations models. Methods are illustrated with worked examples, complete with figures that display code and output.

    Measurement Error Models

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    The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. «The effort of Professor Fuller is commendable . . . [the book] provides a complete treatment of an important and frequently ignored topic. Those who work with measurement error models will find it valuable. It is the fundamental book on the subject, and statisticians will benefit from adding this book to their collection or to university or departmental libraries.» -Biometrics «Given the large and diverse literature on measurement error/errors-in-variables problems, Fuller's book is most welcome. Anyone with an interest in the subject should certainly have this book.» -Journal of the American Statistical Association «The author is to be commended for providing a complete presentation of a very important topic. Statisticians working with measurement error problems will benefit from adding this book to their collection.» -Technometrics « . . . this book is a remarkable achievement and the product of impressive top-grade scholarly work.» -Journal of Applied Econometrics Measurement Error Models offers coverage of estimation for situations where the model variables are observed subject to measurement error. Regression models are included with errors in the variables, latent variable models, and factor models. Results from several areas of application are discussed, including recent results for nonlinear models and for models with unequal variances. The estimation of true values for the fixed model, prediction of true values under the random model, model checks, and the analysis of residuals are addressed, and in addition, procedures are illustrated with data drawn from nearly twenty real data sets.

    Multiple Time Series

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    The Wiley Series in Probability and Statistics is a collection of topics of current research interests in both pure and applied statistics and probability developments in the field and classical methods. This series provides essential and invaluable reading for all statisticians, whether in academia, industry, government, or research.

    Mathematical Asset Management

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    A practical approach to the mathematical tools needed to increase portfolio growth, learn successful trading strategies, and manage the risks associated with market fluctuation Mathematical Asset Management presents an accessible and practical introduction to financial derivatives and portfolio selection while also acting as a basis for further study in mathematical finance. Assuming a fundamental background in calculus, real analysis, and linear algebra, the book uses mathematical tools only as needed and provides comprehensive, yet concise, coverage of various topics, such as: Interest rates and the connection between present value and arbitrage Financial instruments beyond bonds that serve as building blocks for portfolios Trading strategies and risk performance measures Stochastic properties of stock prices The difference between expected return and expected growth and the geometric Brownian motion Diversification through the creation of optimal portfolios under various constraints The use of the Capital Asset Pricing Model to accurately estimate the difference between the return of the market and the short rate To further demonstrate the reality of the discussed concepts, the author analyzes five active stocks over a four-year period and highlights the different methods and portfolios that exist in today's economic world. Exercises are also provided throughout the text, along with the solutions, allowing readers to measure their understanding of presented techniques as well as see how the methods work in real life. Mathematical Asset Management is an excellent book for courses in mathematical finance, actuarial mathematics, financial derivatives, and financial engineering at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a valuable reference for practitioners in banking, insurance, and asset management industries.

    Margins of Error

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    Enhance the quality of survey results by recognizing and reducing measurement errors. Margins of Error: A Study of Reliability in Survey Measurement demonstrates how and hwy identifying the presence and extent of measurement errors in survey data is essential for improving the overall collection and analysis of the data. The author outlines the consequences of ignoring survey measurement errors and also discusses ways to detect and estimate the impact of these errors. This book also provides recommendations of improving the quality of survey data. Logically organized and clearly written, this book: Deconstructs the data gathering process into six main elements of the response process: question adequacy, comprehension, accessibility, retrieval, motivation, and communication Provides an exhaustive review of valuable reliability estimation techniques that can be applied to survey data Identifies the types of questions and interviewer practices that are essential to the collection of reliable data Addresses hypotheses regarding which survey questions, sources of information, and questionnaire formats produce the most reliable data In conjunction with research data gathered on nearly 500 survey measures and the application of an empirical approach grounded in classical measurement theory, this book discusses the sources of measurement error and provides the tools necessary for improving survey data collection methods. Margins of Error enables statisticians and researchers in the fields of public opinion and survey research to design studies that can detect, estimate, and reduce measurement errors that may have previously gone undetected. This book also serves as a supplemental textbook for both undergraduate and graduate survey methodology courses.