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Список книг автора Группа авторовRisk Analysis
Everyday we face decisions that carry an element of risk and uncertainty. The ability to analyze, predict, and prepare for the level of risk entailed by these decisions is, therefore, one of the most constant and vital skills needed for analysts, scientists and managers. Risk analysis can be defined as a systematic use of information to identify hazards, threats and opportunities, as well as their causes and consequences, and then express risk. In order to successfully develop such a systematic use of information, those analyzing the risk need to understand the fundamental concepts of risk analysis and be proficient in a variety of methods and techniques. Risk Analysis adopts a practical, predictive approach and guides the reader through a number of applications. Risk Analysis: Provides an accessible and concise guide to performing risk analysis in a wide variety of fields, with minimal prior knowledge required. Adopts a broad perspective on risk, with focus on predictions and highlighting uncertainties beyond expected values and probabilities, allowing a more flexible approach than traditional statistical analysis. Acknowledges that expected values and probabilities could produce poor predictions – surprises may occur. Emphasizes the planning and use of risk analyses, rather than just the risk analysis methods and techniques, including the statistical analysis tools. Features many real-life case studies from a variety of applications and practical industry problems, including areas such as security, business and economy, transport, oil & gas and ICT (Information and Communication Technology). Forms an ideal companion volume to Aven’s previous Wiley text Foundations of Risk Analysis. Professor Aven’s previous book Foundations of Risk Analysis presented and discussed several risk analysis approaches and recommended a predictive approach. This new text expands upon this predictive approach, exploring further the risk analysis principles, concepts, methods and models in an applied format. This book provides a useful and practical guide to decision-making, aimed at professionals within the risk analysis and risk management field.
Data Analysis
The first part of this book is devoted to methods seeking relevant dimensions of data. The variables thus obtained provide a synthetic description which often results in a graphical representation of the data. After a general presentation of the discriminating analysis, the second part is devoted to clustering methods which constitute another method, often complementary to the methods described in the first part, to synthesize and to analyze the data. The book concludes by examining the links existing between data mining and data analysis.
Sampling Statistics
Discover the latest developments and current practices in survey sampling Survey sampling is an important component of research in many fields, and as the importance of survey sampling continues to grow, sophisticated sampling techniques that are both economical and scientifically reliable are essential to planning statistical research and the design of experiments. Sampling Statistics presents estimation techniques and sampling concepts to facilitate the application of model-based procedures to survey samples. The book begins with an introduction to standard probability sampling concepts, which provides the foundation for studying samples selected from a finite population. The development of the theory of complex sampling methods is detailed, and subsequent chapters explore the construction of estimators, sample design, replication variance estimation, and procedures such as nonresponse adjustment and small area estimation where models play a key role. A final chapter covers analytic studies in which survey data are used for the estimation of parameters for a subject matter model. The author draws upon his extensive experience with survey samples in the book's numerous examples. Both the production of «general use» databases and the analytic study of a limited number of characteristics are discussed. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their comprehension of the presented concepts and techniques, and the references provide further resources for study. Sampling Statistics is an ideal book for courses in survey sampling at the graduate level. It is also a valuable reference for practicing statisticians who analyze survey data or are involved in the design of sample surveys.
Quantitative Finance
A rigorous, yet accessible, introduction to essential topics in mathematical finance Presented as a course on the topic, Quantitative Finance traces the evolution of financial theory and provides an overview of core topics associated with financial investments. With its thorough explanations and use of real-world examples, this book carefully outlines instructions and techniques for working with essential topics found within quantitative finance including portfolio theory, pricing of derivatives, decision theory, and the empirical behavior of prices. The author begins with introductory chapters on mathematical analysis and probability theory, which provide the needed tools for modeling portfolio choice and pricing in discrete time. Next, a review of the basic arithmetic of compounding as well as the relationships that exist among bond prices and spot and forward interest rates is presented.? Additional topics covered include: Dividend discount models Markowitz mean-variance theory The Capital Asset Pricing Model Static?portfolio theory based on the expected-utility paradigm Familiar probability models for marginal distributions of returns and the dynamic behavior of security prices The final chapters of the book delve into the paradigms of pricing and present the application of martingale pricing in advanced models of price dynamics. Also included is a step-by-step discussion on the use of Fourier methods to solve for arbitrage-free prices when underlying price dynamics are modeled in realistic, but complex ways. Throughout the book, the author presents insight on current approaches along with comments on the unique difficulties that exist in the study of financial markets. These reflections illustrate the evolving nature of the financial field and help readers develop analytical techniques and tools to apply in their everyday work. Exercises at the end of most chapters progress in difficulty, and selected worked-out solutions are available in the appendix. In addition, numerous empirical projects utilize MATLAB® and Minitab® to demonstrate the mathematical tools of finance for modeling the behavior of prices and markets. Data sets that accompany these projects can be found via the book's FTP site. Quantitative Finance is an excellent book for courses in quantitative finance or financial engineering at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a valuable resource for practitioners in related fields including engineering, finance, and economics.
Linear Models
An insightful approach to the analysis of variance in the study of linear models Linear Models explores the theory of linear models and the dynamic relationships that these models have with Analysis of Variance (ANOVA), experimental design, and random and mixed-model effects. This one-of-a-kind book emphasizes an approach that clearly explains the distribution theory of linear models and experimental design starting from basic mathematical concepts in linear algebra. The author begins with a presentation of the classic fixed-effects linear model and goes on to illustrate eight common linear models, along with the value of their use in statistics. From this foundation, subsequent chapters introduce concepts pertaining to the linear model, starting with vector space theory and the theory of least-squares estimation. An outline of the Helmert matrix is also presented, along with a thorough explanation of how the ANOVA is created in both typical two-way and higher layout designs, ultimately revealing the distribution theory. Other important topics covered include: Vector space theory The theory of least squares estimation Gauss-Markov theorem Kronecker products Diagnostic and robust methods for linear models Likelihood approaches to estimation A discussion of Bayesian theory is also included for purposes of comparison and contrast, and numerous illustrative exercises assist the reader with uncovering the nature of the models, using both classic and new data sets. Requiring only a working knowledge of basic probability and statistical inference, Linear Models is a valuable book for courses on linear models at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an excellent reference for practitioners who use linear models to conduct research in the fields of econometrics, psychology, sociology, biology, and agriculture.
Biostatistical Methods
Comprehensive coverage of classical and modern methods of biostatistics Biostatistical Methods focuses on the assessment of risks and relative risks on the basis of clinical investigations. It develops basic concepts and derives biostatistical methods through both the application of classical mathematical statistical tools and more modern likelihood-based theories. The first half of the book presents methods for the analysis of single and multiple 2x2 tables for cross-sectional, prospective, and retrospective (case-control) sampling, with and without matching using fixed and two-stage random effects models. The text then moves on to present a more modern likelihood- or model-based approach, which includes unconditional and conditional logistic regression; the analysis of count data and the Poisson regression model; and the analysis of event time data, including the proportional hazards and multiplicative intensity models. The book contains a technical appendix that presents the core mathematical statistical theory used for the development of classical and modern statistical methods. Biostatistical Methods: The Assessment of Relative Risks: * Presents modern biostatistical methods that are generalizations of the classical methods discussed * Emphasizes derivations, not just cookbook methods * Provides copious reference citations for further reading * Includes extensive problem sets * Employs case studies to illustrate application of methods * Illustrates all methods using the Statistical Analysis System(r) (SAS) Supplemented with numerous graphs, charts, and tables as well as a Web site for larger data sets and exercises, Biostatistical Methods: The Assessment of Relative Risks is an excellent guide for graduate-level students in biostatistics and an invaluable reference for biostatisticians, applied statisticians, and epidemiologists.
Regression Graphics
An exploration of regression graphics through computer graphics. Recent developments in computer technology have stimulated new and exciting uses for graphics in statistical analyses. Regression Graphics, one of the first graduate-level textbooks on the subject, demonstrates how statisticians, both theoretical and applied, can use these exciting innovations. After developing a relatively new regression context that requires few scope-limiting conditions, Regression Graphics guides readers through the process of analyzing regressions graphically and assessing and selecting models. This innovative reference makes use of a wide range of graphical tools, including 2D and 3D scatterplots, 3D binary response plots, and scatterplot matrices. Supplemented by a companion ftp site, it features numerous data sets and applied examples that are used to elucidate the theory. Other important features of this book include: * Extensive coverage of a relatively new regression context based on dimension-reduction subspaces and sufficient summary plots * Graphical regression, an iterative visualization process for constructing sufficient regression views * Graphics for regressions with a binary response * Graphics for model assessment, including residual plots * Net-effects plots for assessing predictor contributions * Graphics for predictor and response transformations * Inverse regression methods * Access to a Web site of supplemental plots, data sets, and 3D color displays. An ideal text for students in graduate-level courses on statistical analysis, Regression Graphics is also an excellent reference for professional statisticians.
LISP-STAT
Written for the professional statistician or graduate statistics student, the primary objective of this book is to describe a system, based on the LISP language, for statistical computing and dynamic graphics to show how it can be used as an effective platform for a wide range of statistical computing tasks ranging from basic calculations to customizing dynamic graphs. In addition, it introduces object-oriented programming and graphics programming in a statistical context. The discussion of these ideas is based on the Lisp-Stat system; readers with access to such a system can reproduce the examples presented and use them as a basis for further experimentation and study.
Accelerated Testing
The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. «. . . a goldmine of knowledge on accelerated life testing principles and practices . . . one of the very few capable of advancing the science of reliability. It definitely belongs in every bookshelf on engineering.» –Dev G. Raheja, Quality and Reliability Engineering International «. . . an impressive book. The width and number of topics covered, the practical data sets included, the obvious knowledge and understanding of the author and the extent of published materials reviewed combine to ensure that this will be a book used frequently.» –Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A benchmark text in the field, Accelerated Testing: Statistical Models, Test Plans, and Data Analysis offers engineers, scientists, and statisticians a reliable resource on the effective use of accelerated life testing to measure and improve product reliability. From simple data plots to advanced computer programs, the text features a wealth of practical applications and a clear, readable style that makes even complicated physical and statistical concepts uniquely accessible. A detailed index adds to its value as a reference source.
Stochastic Simulation
WILEY-INTERSCIENCE PAPERBACK SERIES The Wiley-Interscience Paperback Series consists of selected books that have been made more accessible to consumers in an effort to increase global appeal and general circulation. With these new unabridged softcover volumes, Wiley hopes to extend the lives of these works by making them available to future generations of statisticians, mathematicians, and scientists. «. . .this is a very competently written and useful addition to the statistical literature; a book every statistician should look at and that many should study!» —Short Book Reviews, International Statistical Institute «. . .reading this book was an enjoyable learning experience. The suggestions and recommendations on the methods [make] this book an excellent reference for anyone interested in simulation. With its compact structure and good coverage of material, it [is] an excellent textbook for a simulation course.» —Technometrics ". . .this work is an excellent comprehensive guide to simulation methods, written by a very competent author. It is especially recommended for those users of simulation methods who want more than a 'cook book'. " —Mathematics Abstracts This book is a comprehensive guide to simulation methods with explicit recommendations of methods and algorithms. It covers both the technical aspects of the subject, such as the generation of random numbers, non-uniform random variates and stochastic processes, and the use of simulation. Supported by the relevant mathematical theory, the text contains a great deal of unpublished research material, including coverage of the analysis of shift-register generators, sensitivity analysis of normal variate generators, analysis of simulation output, and more.