И последние станут первыми. Финансовый кризис в Восточной Европе. Андерс Ослунд

12.

      20

      Simon Johnson and James Kwak, 13 Bankers: The Wall Street Takeover and the Next Financial Meltdown (New York: Pantheon, 2010), 51.

      21

      Я рассмотрел это в двух книгах: «Building Capitalism: The Transformation of the Former Soviet Bloc» (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002) и «How Capitalism Was Built: The Transformation of Central and Eastern Europe, Russia, and Central Asia» (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2007).

      22

      В этой книге я использую невзвешенные значения, чтобы сравнить эффекты от экономической политики в разных странах.

      23

      International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook (Washington, April 2010).

      24

      Charles P. Kindleberger and Robert Aliber, Manias, Panics, and Crashes, 5th ed. (Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 2005), 90. [Киндлбергер Ч., Алибер Р. Мировые финансовые кризисы. Мании, паники и крахи. СПб.: Питер, 2010. С. 159.]

      25

      Morris Goldstein, “Emerging-Market Financial Crises: Lessons and Prospects” (speech, 2007 Annual Meeting, Institute of International Finance, Washington, October 20, 2007).

      26

      Åslund, How Capitalism Was Built, 79–80.

      27

      Marek Dabrowski, “Rethinking Balance of Payments Constraints in a Globalized World” in Challenges of Globalization: Imbalances and Growth, eds. Anders Åslund and Marek Dabrowski (Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2008).

      28

      Zsolt Darvas and Jean Pisani-Ferry, “Avoiding a New European Divide,” Bruegel Policy Brief no. 10 (Brussels: Bruegel, December 2008).

      29

      Bas B. Bakker and Anne-Marie Guide, “The Credit Boom in the EU New Member States: Bad Luck or Bad Policies?” IMF Working Paper 10/130 (Washington: International Monetary Fund, 2010), 35.

      30

      Susan Schadler, “Are Large External Imbalances in Central Europe Sustainable,” in Challenges of Globalization: Imbalances and Growth, eds. Anders Åslund and Marek Dabrowski (Washington: Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2008), 38.

      31

      Этим наблюдением я обязан Б. Эгерту.

      32

      Bakker and Guide, “The Credit Boom in the EU New Member States,” 15.

      33

      Ibid., 19.

      34

      European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Transition Report 2009 (London, 2009).

      35

      Transparency International, Corruption Perceptions Index 2009, available at www.transparency.org (accessed on July 17, 2010).

      36

      Guillermo A. Calvo, “Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops,” Journal of Applied Economics 1, no. 1 (1998): 35–54 (emphasis in original).

      37

      Schadler, “Are Large External Imbalances in Central Europe Sustainable,” 17.

      38

      Olivier Blanchard, “The Perfect Storm,” Finance & Development (June 2010): 37.

      39

      Bakker and Guide, “The Credit Boom in the EU New Member States,” 19.

      40

      Основными игроками в странах Балтии были три шведских банка – Swedbank, SEB и Nordea. SEB начал снижать объемы кредитования летом 2007 г., Swedbank – в конце 2007 г., а Nordea – в 2008 г. воспользовался моментом и увеличил свою долю на рынке.

      41

      “Lars Christensen, you are being laughed at!” prygi.blogspot. com, January 5, 2008, available at http://prygi.blogspot.com/2008/01/lars-christensen-you-are-being-laughed. html (accessed on June 12, 2010).

      42

      Sebastian Edwards, “Capital Controls, Sudden Stops and Current Account Reversals,” NBER Working Paper 11170 (Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research, 2005).

      43

      Paul Marer, “Global Crises and Eastern Europe,” Ada Oeconomica 60, no. 1 (March 2010): 21, 30.

      44

      Я благодарен Джеффри Андерсону, обратившему мое внимание на это обстоятельство.

      45

      Bakker and Guide, “The Credit Boom in the EU New Member States,” 22.

      46

      IMF, “IMF Executive Board Approves $20.58 Arrangement for Poland under the flexible credit line,” press release no. 09/153, May 6, 2009.

      47

      Olivier Jeanne, Jonathan Ostry, and Jeromin Zettelmeyer, “A Theory of International Crisis Lending and IMF Conditionality,” IMF Working Paper 08/236 (Washington: International Monetary Fund, 2008).

      48

      Miroslav Plojhar and Yarkin Cebeci, “Romania and Bulgaria Announced Large Public Spending Cuts” (JP Morgan Emerging Europe Economic Research, May 7, 2010).

      49

      Neil Buckley, “Hungary Gives Second Warning about ‘Grave’ Risk of Default,” Financial Times, June 5–6, 2010.

      50

      Ivan Krastev, Shifting Obsessions: Three Essays on Politics of Anti-Corruption (Budapest: CEU Press, 2004).

      51

      Paul Marer, “Global Crises and Eastern Europe,” Ada Oeconomica 60, no. 1 (March): 30.

      52

      IMF, “