Sustainable Futures. Raphael Kaplinsky

Economist of the World Bank

      ‘Sustainable Futures is a triumph. Drawing on all the social sciences, it demonstrates how bulldozer trends of our time can be understood as fuelled by the declining phase of the Mass Production “techno-economic paradigm”. The book ends with a vision of what an ICT-enabled, more sustainable world could look like. Anybody interested in the future of human – and non-human – society should debate it.’

      Robert H. Wade, Professor of Global Political Economy, London School of Economics and Political Science

      ‘The journey from the world’s current multiple crises to a sustainable future looks almost impossibly difficult. But in Raphael Kaplinsky we have a guide who inspires confidence. He is that rare thing: an economist who combines a real understanding of society and politics with a seasoned idealism, and in this book he gives us what is perhaps our best chance.’

      Richard Wilkinson, co-author of The Spirit Level and co-founder of The Equality Trust

Sustainable Futures

      An Agenda for Action

      Raphael Kaplinsky

      polity

Copyright Page

      Copyright © Raphael Kaplinsky 2021

      The right of Raphael Kaplinsky to be identified as Author of this Work has been asserted in accordance with the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

      First published in 2021 by Polity Press

      Polity Press

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      All rights reserved. Except for the quotation of short passages for the purpose of criticism and review, no part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher.

      ISBN-13: 978-1-5095-4782-1

      ISBN-13: 978-1-5095-4783-8 (pb)

      A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

      Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

      Names: Kaplinsky, Raphael, author.

      Title: Sustainable futures : an agenda for action / Raphael Kaplinsky.

      Description: Cambridge, UK ; Medford, MA : Polity Press, 2021. | Includes bibliographical references and index. | Summary: “How to steer the economy and society to a more sustainable future”-- Provided by publisher.

      Identifiers: LCCN 2020053493 (print) | LCCN 2020053494 (ebook) | ISBN 9781509547821 (hardback) | ISBN 9781509547838 (paperback) | ISBN 9781509547845 (epub) | ISBN 9781509548439 (pdf)

      Subjects: LCSH: Sustainable development.

      Classification: LCC HC79.E5 K3644 2021 (print) | LCC HC79.E5 (ebook) | DDC 338.9/27--dc23

      LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020053493

      LC ebook record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2020053494

      by Fakenham Prepress Solutions, Fakenham, Norfolk NR21 8NL

      The publisher has used its best endeavours to ensure that the URLs for external websites referred to in this book are correct and active at the time of going to press. However, the publisher has no responsibility for the websites and can make no guarantee that a site will remain live or that the content is or will remain appropriate.

      Every effort has been made to trace all copyright holders, but if any have been overlooked the publisher will be pleased to include any necessary credits in any subsequent reprint or edition.

      For further information on Polity, visit our website: politybooks.com

Dedication

      To my grandchildren (Arlo, Kika, Eva and Cam), to my children and their partners (Natasha, Ben, Justin and Nichole) who made them for us, to my godson (Kian) and, of course, to all the grandchildren of the world

In memory of my parents, Morris and Becky, with love and gratitude for building the platform on which our family stands, and to Cecil, who left us too early

Figures

2.1 The expansion of Gross Domestic Product, 1961–2018: World, US and Europe (% per annum)

2.2 Share of investment in equipment and other physical assets (Gross Capital Formation) in GDP

2.3 Annual growth of labour productivity, 1951–2019

2.4 Balance of payments: largest debtor and surplus economies, 1998–2019 ($m)

2.5 Corporate tax rate: France, Germany, US, UK, Japan and Sweden, 1981–2019 (%)

      3.1 Top 1% personal wealth share in emerging and rich countries, 1913–2015

      3.2 Changes in global inequality, 1980–2016

      3.3 Share of labour in total national income, high-income economies, 1960–2012

      3.4a Life-expectancy and inequality, 22 OECD economies

      3.4b Life-expectancy and inequality, 50 US States

      3.5 Health and social problems and degree of inequality, inter-country differences

      3.6 Index of status inequality and degree of inequality

      3.7 Index of social participation and degree of inequality

      3.8 Index of civic participation and degree of inequality

      3.9 Belief in conspiracy theories, US and UK

      3.10 Inflows of migrants, selected high-income economies, 2006–2016 (millions)

      3.11 Immigrant share of population and far-right voting

4.1 The Holocene in historical perspective: not just warm temperatures but stable temperatures

      4.2 The Great Acceleration

      4.3 Take, Make, Use and Waste

      4.4 Energy equivalent global output of different energy forms, 1800–2019 (terawatt hours)

      4.5 The growth in global total resource supply, 1970–2010 (million tonnes)

      4.6 Index of energy efficiency