Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns. Thomas N. Bulkowski

position, performance. I sorted the breakout price into one of three bins. Upward breakouts show the best performance when the breakout price appears in the middle third of the yearly high–low price range. Downward breakouts favor the lowest third of the range.

      Throwbacks and pullbacks. A throwback or pullback occurs about two‐thirds of the time, and it takes 11 or 12 days to complete the trip back to the breakout price (on average).

      In all cases, when a throwback or pullback occurs, performance suffers. To avoid a throwback or pullback, look for nearby support or resistance that is strong enough to turn price back. Good luck with that. I've not been able to predict whether a throwback or pullback will happen. I just assume they will and go from there. If they don't appear, I'm as happy as a kid with a bag full of candy on Halloween.

      You might try looking for overhead resistance or underlying support within 5% to 11% away from the pattern (those percentages are averages of how far price travels in 6 days, according to the table).

      Gaps. Sometimes a breakout day gap helps and sometimes not. Downward breakouts have results that are one percentage point apart, so they may not be statistically significant. Upward breakouts see better performance if a gap is absent. That's counter to normal trading wisdom. Other chart patterns see performance improve if a gap occurs.

      If you want to participate in a gap trade, know that I measured performance using the opening price the day after the gap, so you can buy a stock after it shows a gap and maybe you can participate in the better performance.

Table 11.4 Breakout and Post‐Breakout Statistics

Description	Bull Market, Up Breakout	Bear Market, Up Breakout	Bull Market, Down Breakout	Bear Market, Down Breakout
Breakout direction	60% up	49% up	40% down	51% down
Performance of breakouts occurring near the 12‐month low (L), middle (M), or high (H)	L 34%, M 46%, H 41%	L 23%, M 26%, H 25%	L –16%, M –14%, H –12%	L –23%, M –22%, H –17%
Throwbacks/pullbacks occurrence	67%	64%	67%	67%
Average time to throwback/pullback peaks	5% in 7 days	7% in 6 days	–6% in 6 days	–11% in 7 days
Average time to throwback/pullback ends	12 days	11 days	11 days	12 days
Average rise/decline for patterns with throwbacks/pullbacks	38%	24%	–13%	–19%
Average rise/decline for patterns without throwbacks/pullbacks	48%	26%	–14%	–26%
Percentage price resumes trend	75%	69%	54%	49%
Performance with breakout day gap	38%	22%	–14%	–21%
Performance without breakout day gap	42%	26%	–13%	–22%
Average gap size	$0.84	$0.35	$0.92	$0.63

Table 11.5 shows statistics related to size.

      Height. In all cases, tall patterns see better post‐breakout performance than short ones.

To use this finding, measure the pattern's height from the highest high to the lowest low. Divide the difference by the breakout price (for upward breakouts, it is the highest high in the pattern; for downward breakouts, use the lowest low). Then compare the result with the median shown in the table. A result higher than the median means you have a tall pattern; lower means a shorter pattern. For best results, select tall broadening tops and avoid short ones.

Table 11.5 Size Statistics

Description	Bull Market, Up Breakout	Bear Market, Up Breakout	Bull Market, Down Breakout	Bear Market, Down Breakout
Tall pattern performance	46%	26%	–16%	–22%
Short pattern performance	36%	24%	–12%	–21%
Median height as a percentage of breakout price	10.6%	15.2%	10.9%	18.5%
Narrow pattern performance	39%	26%	–13%	–21%
Wide pattern performance	44%	24%	–14%	–22%
Median width	45 days	45 days	38 days	41 days
Short and narrow performance	38%	28%	–11%	–20%
Short and wide performance	35%	13%	–11%	–23%
Tall and wide performance	47%	29%	–16%	Скачать книгу В начало < 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 > В конец