The Case for Impeachment. Allan Lichtman J.

House Republicans into joining with Democrats for a majority vote on an impeachment investigation. Prosecutors use such pressure on underlings to cut immunity deals for testimony against the person at the top of the chain, in this case President Donald Trump. If Mueller flips high Trump officials, and their testimonies against Trump are damning enough, it could inspire public demands for an impeachment investigation and shock Republicans into action.

      The president could pardon anyone subject to federal prosecution. However, such pardons pose the risk of making the obstruction of justice case against him compelling enough for many Republicans. “Unlike the pardon of Arpaio, which is a despicable blow to the rule of law,” said law professor Peter Shane of Ohio State University, “pardoning anyone who might have been a co-conspirator in misconduct involving Trump himself would much more plausibly be impeachable.”³⁸

      Similarly, Mueller may uncover direct “smoking gun” evidence of collusion through intercepted conversations between members of the Trump team and the Russians. We know that American intelligence agents have wiretapped Manafort’s phones pursuant to a warrant from the U.S. Federal Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court, which requires probable cause that he was acting as a hostile foreign agent. Such evidence, like the Nixon tapes, could prove collusion from the mouths of the conspirators themselves and create unstoppable momentum for an impeachment investigation.³⁹

      Lastly, Mueller could uncover proof of other felonies committed directly by Donald Trump. If he finds, for example, that the evidence supports allegations of obstruction of justice, money laundering, or tax evasion, even House Republicans would be hard-pressed to oppose an impeachment investigation. Mueller has been investigating obstruction and CNN has reported that “the IRS is now sharing information with special counsel Robert Mueller about key Trump campaign officials,” although it is unclear whether he has yet sought to obtain the president’s tax returns. The mills of special counsel investigations typically grind slowly, but Mueller seems intent on moving quickly. Bombshell revelations could occur by early 2018 or even sooner.⁴⁰

      The final scenario turns on the self-interest of House Republicans. The first rule of politics for an incumbent officeholder is survival. If, by the summer of 2018, vulnerable Republicans come to believe that Trump threatens their reelection and see that the American people are demanding impeachment, enough of them could turn against the president and join with Democrats in support of an impeachment investigation.

      Americans can only hope that, as in Watergate, patriotic Republicans will grasp the dire consequences of failing at least to investigate the impeachment of Donald Trump. Inaction would nullify constitutional safeguards against the corruption of presidential service through the pursuit of private profit. It would leave our democracy vulnerable to destruction by the undeterred foreign manipulation of elections abetted by the collusion of unscrupulous campaigns. Inaction would normalize the Orwellian doublethink of the Trump regime, in which reality no longer exists and lies become truth. It would validate the divisive politics that threaten America’s national unity by inflaming ethnic, racial, and religious prejudice.⁴¹

      There are yet deeper issues raised by Donald Trump’s impeachment. In his first speech to the United Nations, on September 19, 2017, Trump mentioned the words “sovereignty” or “sovereign” no less than twenty-one times. “President delivered a speech to his alt-right, anti-globalist base from the podium of the United Nations General Assembly,” warned David Rothkopf, a visiting professor of international relations at Columbia University. What Trump failed to deliver was any remark whatsoever on the gravest external threat of all to American sovereignty: Russia’s interference in the 2016 election.⁴²

      But if Russia’s interference in the election poses the gravest external threat to our nation and all it stands for, then it’s Trump who poses the gravest threat domestically and existentially—though even many of Trump’s critics miss the deepest menace of his presidency. Trump is neither a modern liberal nor a conservative, but that is not to say he’s a blank slate ideologically. Rather, he is a true reactionary who would turn back the clock to an era of xenophobic nationalism, a vision shared by the most backward-looking of Americans, the neo-Nazis and the white supremacists. Like Trump, these reactionaries yearn for a return to an America dominated by white men and guided by a narrow conception of traditional culture, an America insulated from the world by tariff walls, restrictive immigration quotas, and isolationist policies. “We are determined to take our country back,” announced David Duke from the far-right rally in Charlottesville, Virginia. “We are going to fulfill the promises of Donald Trump. That’s what we believed in. That’s why we voted for Donald Trump.”⁴³

      At one point in time, extreme nationalism functioned as a foundation for building strong nation states across the world, but it cannot represent the future of the United States—not in our modern day. By the early twentieth century, unchecked insular nationalism had culminated in a worldwide depression, two catastrophic world wars, the collapse of multiple democracies, and the rise of dictatorships around the globe. In recognition of these tragedies, much of the world has moved toward the only viable future: one of gender and racial equality, global cooperation, free trade, common democratic values, and a united approach to fighting the catastrophic climate change that threatens human civilization. The number of worldwide democracies has soared—from just twelve in 1942 to more than one hundred by the end of the twentieth century—but democracy remains imperiled across the globe, endangered by the same reactionary forces that Trump now has unleashed in America.

      Trump’s reactionary worldview is best symbolized by his commitment to erecting a wall along America’s southern borders—a throwback to the unsustainable walled cities of medieval times. People could not prosper or thrive in these conditions. They suffered due to polluted water, shortages of food and consumer goods, crumbling habitation, and deficient sanitation. They were ravaged by diseases, like smallpox, dysentery, and the catastrophic Black Death. For a short while, the walled cities may have provided protections, but as technology advanced—as it always does and will continue to do—the walls became useless for defense.

      This vision of a walled-off nation is not populist, but profoundly elitist. It reeks of the fortress mentality of privileged Americans who, like Trump, have retreated into the shelter of gated enclaves—guarded versions of medieval castles. He hides out in Trump Tower, away from the very people who flock to his rallies. In the words of renowned late scholar Umberto Eco, “Such postmodern neomedieval Manhattan new castles as the Citicorp Center and Trump Tower [are] curious instances of a new feudalism, with their courts open to peasants and merchants and the well-protected high-level apartments reserved for lords.” In 1984, Trump even planned to build a literal “Trump Castle” in Manhattan, complete with battlements, a moat, and a drawbridge. The project’s architect said that the castle’s medieval-style defenses were “very Trumpish.” Potential tenants could buy into a castle residence for $1.5 million, but Trump’s dream project collapsed when the owners of the proposed site declined to participate.⁴⁴

      Even if the president’s backers cannot access the upper reaches of Trump Tower, they can still hold out hope that his walled-off America will protect their threatened livelihoods and culture. “Protection,” Trump proclaimed in his inaugural address, with literal and figurative connotation, “will lead to great prosperity and strength.” Sadly, for the people who have bought into it as well as for those who have not, it’s an unfathomable vision. Trump cannot wall off the nation from the findings of science, from invasive pathogens like the Zika virus, or from the ravages of monster storms, chronic floods, runaway wildfires, and killer droughts. He cannot block out the technological advances that have rendered coal mines and old-style smokestack industries largely obsolete in the United States. He cannot insulate America from the global economy, or from progress that’s well underway. And Trump cannot re-create a culturally uniform, white “pioneer stock” America through any amount of immigration restrictions or mass deportations; already, the demographic die is cast for a pluralist future.

      Trump’s reactionary impulse is inevitably authoritarian, and it explains much of his overreach as president. Reactionism cannot withstand a democratic process broadly open to all voters in an increasingly pluralistic nation; it cannot withstand challenges to autocratic control over the flow of information and