The Case for Impeachment. Allan Lichtman J.

approved his continuing hold on a lease to the Old Post Office property, thereby maintaining his privilege to own, operate, and profit from the hotel. Yet the terms of the lease state, “No member or delegate to Congress, or elected official of the Government of the United States or the Government of the District of Columbia, shall be admitted to any share or part of this Lease, or to any benefit that may arise therefrom.” Designed to avoid conflicts of interest between the GSA, which administers the lease, and other government officials including the president, the provision is not gratuitous. In what could be viewed as a strategic maneuver, Trump appointed a former member of his transition team as the GSA’s Administrator. This Administrator then approved the lease arrangement, which effectively rendered the president the simultaneous tenant and landlord of the property.²⁸

      When it comes to Trump’s conflicts with the Domestic Emolument Clause, some violations—like the direct payments made by the federal government to Trump-branded businesses—are especially glaring. The federal government has likely spent substantial sums at the Trump-branded golf resorts, for instance, that Trump has visited many times since his inauguration. The exact amount spent is unknown, because the administration has not responded to a request by congressional Democrats for an itemized accounting. In another textbook case of the types of conflict that framers sought to avoid, the Secret Service rented out space in Trump Tower. They’ve since withdrawn in early July, but only because of a dispute with management over the terms of their lease.²⁹

      A CRIME AGAINST HUMANITY

      Scientists have long warned that climate change poses a threat to humanity’s well-being and survival, and yet there are those who still insist on denying it. “There is no morally responsible way to downplay the dangers that negligent policies—expected to accelerate human-caused climate change—pose to humankind,” said Lawrence Torcello, an associate professor of moral and political philosophy at the University of Rochester. “There can be no greater crime against humanity than the foreseeable, and methodical, destruction of conditions that make human life possible … We will search in vain for a better reason to depose elected officials.”³⁰

      I am not advocating impeachment over a policy difference, but rather saying that impeachment should take place only upon proof that President Trump’s retreat on climate change threatens the well-being and survival of humanity. As I previously explained, crimes against the environment as a form of genocide are well recognized in international law. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria have inarguably brought the tragedies of climate change home to the American people, and yet, in their wakes, the statements issued by Trump have been contradictory. “Hurricane Irma is of epic proportion, perhaps bigger than we have ever seen,” Trump tweeted. But when asked to comment about recent storms and climate change, Trump contradicted himself, saying, “We’ve had bigger storms than this,” referring vaguely to storms that occurred in the 1930s and ’40s. Trump is “just not correct,” said meteorology professor Kerry Andrew Emanuel, an authority on hurricanes. Harvey soaked Texas and Louisiana with a record 51 inches of rainfall, and Irma was the most sustained Category 5 hurricane on record. The bill for these storms may top $200 billion, far exceeding the cost of any two storms in U.S. history. Following closely in their wake, Maria obliterated Puerto Rico and shattered historical precedent in the process. Never in recorded history had three Atlantic hurricanes of at least Category 4 force made landfall in a single year—until 2017.³¹

      It would be false to claim that climate change creates hurricanes, but warmer water temperatures do strengthen hurricanes, thereby increasing their intensity, and rising sea levels make for more severe storm surges. This toxic mix is a recipe for the perfect catastrophic storm. “The most dangerous myth that we have bought into as a society is not the myth that climate isn’t changing or that humans aren’t responsible,” said Katharine Hayhoe, director of the Climate Science Center at Texas Tech University. “It’s the myth that ‘It doesn’t matter to me.’ And that’s why this is absolutely the time to be talking about the way climate change amplifies or exacerbates these natural events. This brings it home.”³²

      And the effects of climate change are not limited to destructive storms; they’ve also given us droughts, heat waves, record floods, and runaway wildfires like those that have claimed dozens of lives in California. New studies carry dire warnings for our future. A September 2017 study by NASA researchers found that warming Antarctica waters recently led to a tripling of the amount of ice loss. The greater the ice melt, the more that sea levels will rise. A July 2017 study by the Union of Concerned Scientists warned that 90 American communities already face chronic flooding and that this number will likely rise to 170 by 2035 and to 490 by 2100. At century’s end, chronic flooding will afflict “40 percent of all oceanfront communities on the East and Gulf Coast,” including Cambridge, Massachusetts; Oakland, California; Miami and St. Petersburg, Florida; and four of the five boroughs of New York City. If, however, the world met the emission reduction goals of the Paris Accord, which Trump has repudiated, the great majority of U.S. communities (380 of 490) could avoid this grim, watery fate.³³

      In June 2017, Trump followed through on his promise to withdraw the United States from the Paris climate accord. Rumors circulating in September that Trump might be reconsidering his decision sparked hope among the environmentally minded, but the White House was quick to deny them. Climate Advisers has quantified the “Trump Effect” from his retreat on climate change as equaling by 2025 an enormous annual increase of nearly half a gigaton of new greenhouse gas pollution.³⁴

      ABUSE OF POWER

      In a 1987 decision, the Supreme Court recognized that judicial contempt vindicated the authority of the courts and protected the separation of powers: “Thus, although proceedings in response to out-of-court contempts are sufficiently criminal in nature to warrant the imposition of many procedural protections, this does not mean that their prosecution can be undertaken only by the Executive Branch, and it should not obscure the fact that the limited purpose of such proceedings is to vindicate judicial authority.”³⁵ Since assuming office, Trump has exploited his presidential power in flagrant disregard for this concern. Recall the contentious case of former Arizona sheriff Joe Arpaio, who was found guilty by a federal judge of criminal contempt for disregarding a court order to cease targeting and detaining suspected undocumented immigrants based on racial profiling—a violation of the constitutional rights of Hispanics. Trump asked his Justice Department to dismiss the case and then pardoned Arpaio, prior to sentencing and without the standard Justice Department review. In the history of our nation, no other president has ever fully pardoned someone convicted of criminal contempt prior to sentencing.³⁶

      Trump has continued his assault on the free press, even retweeting and then deleting a violent image of a train smashing into a man with the CNN logo covering his face. At a campaign rally, he abused the power of the presidency to call on NFL owners to fire any players who exercised their right of peaceful protest by kneeling during the playing of the National Anthem. Bluntly put, President Trump had shattered precedent by using the power of his office to say that “those people,” whom he called “son[s] of bitch[es],” oblivious or maybe not to the slur on their mothers, should lose their livelihood for a nonviolent, principled protest.³⁷

      To date, Republican indifference to revelations of President Trump’s transgressions have blocked prospects for an impeachment investigation. Yet there remain so many real possibilities for a change of direction that the odds still favor an impeachment investigation no later than the beginning of 2019, but likely sooner than that. Early January 2019 marks the seating of a new Congress. An impeachment investigation would quickly follow if Democrats recapture the U.S. House of Representative in the 2018 midterm elections. To date that remains a long-shot result, but political calculations are rapidly changing in the era of Trump, and the party holding the White House typically loses dozens of seats in midterm contests. Midterm voters usually turn out to register their opposition to an incumbent president, especially one with the dismal approval ratings of Donald Trump. It would take only a net gain of some two dozen seats for Democrats to regain the House majority they held until the 2010 elections.

      Even barring such a political turnabout, the Mueller investigation,