Злой рок. Политика катастроф. Ниал (Нил) Фергюсон

New York Times, January 21, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/21/climate/greta-thunberg-davos-transcript.html.

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      Leonard Lyons, «Loose-Leaf Notebook», Washington Post, January 20, 1947.

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      «Der Krieg? Ich kann das nicht so schrecklich finden! Der Tod eines Menschen: das ist eine Katastrophe. Hunderttausend Tote: das ist eine Statistik!» Kurt Tucholsky, «Französische Witze (I)» и «Noch einmal französische Witze (II)», Vossische Zeitung, August 23, 1925; September 10, 1925. Колонки перепечатаны в кн.: Tucholsky, K. Lerne lachen ohne zu weinen (Berlin: Ernst Rowohlt, 1932), pp. 147–156.

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      Eliezer Yudkowsky, «Cognitive Biases Potentially Affecting Judgement of Global Risks», in Global Catastrophic Risks, ed. Nick Bostrom and Milan Сirkoviс (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), p. 114.

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      Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, «Tail Risk of Contagious Diseases» (препринт, 2020); Lee Mordechai, Merle Eisenberg, Timothy P. Newfield, Adam Izdebski, Janet E. Kay, and Hendrik Poinar, «The Justinianic Plague: An Inconsequential Pandemic?» Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (henceforth PNAS) 116, no. 51 (2019), pp. 25546-25554, https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1903797116.

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      Достойное обсуждение вклада Ричардсона: Brian Hayes, «Statistics of Deadly Quarrels», American Scientist 90 (January – February 2002), pp. 10–15.

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      Классические труды: Lewis F. Richardson, Statistics of Deadly Quarrels, ed. Quincy Wright and C. C. Lienau (Pittsburgh: Boxwood Press, 1960); Jack S. Levy, War in the Modern Great Power System, 1495–1975 (Lexington: University of Kentucky Press, 1983). Из более современных важных публикаций: Pasquale Cirillo and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, «On the Statistical Properties and Tail Risk of Violent Conflicts», Tail Risk Working Papers (2015), arXiv:1505.04722v2; Cirillo and Taleb, «The Decline of Violent Conflicts: What Do the Data Really Say?», в кн.: The Causes of Peace: What We Know Now, ed. Asle Toje and Bård Nikolas Vik Steen (Austin: Lioncrest, 2020), pp. 51–77; Bear F. Braumoeller, Only the Dead: The Persistence of War in the Modern Age (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2019); Aaron Clauset, «On the Frequency and Severity of Interstate Wars», в кн.: Lewis Fry Richardson: His Intellectual Legacy and Influence in the Social Sciences (Pioneers in Arts, Humanities, Science, Engineering, Practice, vol. 27), ed. Nils Gleditsch (Berlin: Springer, 2020), pp. 113–127.

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      Cirillo and Taleb, «Statistical Properties.»

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      Alfred W. Crosby, Ecological Imperialism: The Biological Expansion of Europe, 900-1900 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1993). Критику воззрений Кросби на Колумбов обмен с акцентом на том, как влияли эксплуатация и порабощение на смертность коренного населения, см.: David S. Jones, «Virgin Soils Revisited», William and Mary Quarterly 60, no. 4 (2003), pp. 703–742. См. также: Noble David Cook, Born to Die: Disease and New World Conquest, 1492–1650 (New York: Cambridge University Press, 1998.)

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      Всестороннее обсуждение в кн.: Niall Ferguson, The War of the World: History’s Age of Hatred (London: Penguin Press, 2006), appendix, pp. 647–654.

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      Hayes, «Statistics of Deadly Quarrels», p. 12.

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      Robert J. Barro, «Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century», Quarterly Journal of Economics 121, no. 3 (2006): 823–866, table 1.

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      Причина столь серьезного спада в 1629 году неочевидна: да, война с Испанией шла плохо, но главным театром военных действий в тот год все же были Карибские острова. Специалистам в политической истории 1629 год известен прежде всего как начало 11-летнего «личного правления» Карла I при отсутствии парламента. (Прим. авт.)

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      John A. Eddy, «The Maunder Minimum», Science 192, no. 4245 (June 18, 1976), pp. 1189–1202. См. также: Stephanie Pain, «1709: The Year That Europe Froze», New Scientist, February 4, 2009, https://www.newscientist.com/article/mg20126942-100-1709-the-year-that-europe-froze/.

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      Nicholas Dimsdale, Sally Hills, and Ryland Thomas, «The UK Recession in Context – What Do Three Centuries of Data Tell Us?» Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin (Q4 2010), pp. 277–291.

      См. также: David Milliken and Andy Bruce, «Bank of England Sees Worst Slump in 300 Years as Coronavirus Bites», Reuters, May 6, 2020, https://www.reuters.com/article/ushealth-coronavirus-britain-boe/bankofengland-sees-worst-slumpin300-yearsascoronavirus-bites-idUSKBN22I3BV.

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      Gita Gopinath, «Reopening from the Great Lockdown: Uneven and Uncertain Recovery», IMFBlog, June 24, 2020, https://blogs.imf.org/2020/06/24/reopening-from-the-great-lockdown-uneven-and-uncertain-recovery/.

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      См. также: Leandro Prados de la Escosura, «Output per Head in Pre-Independence Africa: Quantitative Conjectures», Universidad Carlos III de Madrid Working Papers in Economic History (November 2012).

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      «Global Data», Fragile States Index, Fund for Peace, https://fragilestatesindex.org/data/.

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      Leandro Prados de la Escosura. «World Human Development: 1870–2007», EHES Working Paper No. 34 (January 2013).

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      Allison McCann, Jin Wu, and Josh Katz, «How the Coronavirus Compares with 100 Years of Deadly Events», New York Times, June 10, 2020, https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html. См. также: Jeremy Samuel Faust, Zhenqiu Lin, and Carlos del Rio, «Comparison of Estimated Excess Deaths in New York City During the COVID-19 and 1918 Influenza Pandemics», JAMA Network Open 3, no. 8 (2020), https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2769236.

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      Edgar Jones, «The Psychology of Protecting the UK Public Against External Threat: COVID-19 and the Blitz Compared», Lancet, August 27, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1016/S2215–0366