Этот текст – сокращенная версия книги Клауса Шваба, Николаса Дэвиса «Технологии четвертой промышленной революции». Только самые ценные мысли, идеи, кейсы, примеры. О книге Человечество уже пережило три промышленные революции. Благодаря новым технологиям и научным открытиям мир трижды становился совсем другим. Сейчас мы стоим на пороге четвертой революции, которая имеет принципиальные отличия от предшествующих. Ее технологии сочетаемы, они развиваются, усиливая друг друга, и распространяются гораздо быстрее и масштабнее, чем во времена предыдущих революций. Скоро они изменят наш мир до неузнаваемости – от зарождения новых бизнес-моделей до трансформации человеческого мышления. Драйверы Индустрии 4.0 – искусственный интеллект, квантовые вычисления, блокчейн, нейро- и нанотехнологии, передовые материалы. Их распространение в мире открывает невероятные перспективы, но создает огромные экологические, политические и социальные риски. Книга Клауса Шваба – взгляд в будущее и попытка критически осмыслить изменения, которые уже происходят во многих сферах человеческой деятельности. Ее нужно обязательно прочитать, поскольку сегодня это один из самых точных прогнозов о том, как будет выглядеть «дивный новый мир». Зачем читать – Предположить, как Индустрия 4.0 отразится на социальных системах и жизни человека в целом. – Изучить 12 технологических областей, научные прорывы в которых обеспечат наступление Индустрии 4.0. – Понять взаимозависимость новых технологий и попытаться представить, как будет устроен новый мир. Об авторах Клаус Шваб – основатель и президент Всемирного экономического форума в Давосе, профессор MBA в Гарвардском университете; автор ежегодных докладов Global Competitiveness Report, нескольких книг и множества научных статей; основатель Фонда социального предпринимательства и инициатор Международного форума молодых лидеров глобализации; почетный профессор нескольких университетов, удостоен множества государственных наград. Николас Дэвис – член Исполнительного комитета Всемирного экономического форума в Давосе, эксперт по экономике, последователь и коллега Клауса Шваба; директор группы прогнозирования стратегических рисков, обладатель наград и почетных званий, в том числе австралийской премии за лидерство и стипендии Британского Королевского общества искусств.
Barbara Braidwood, Susan Boyce & Richard Cropp
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In the days after Donald Trump’s unexpected victory on election night 2016, The New York Times, CNN, and other leading media outlets reached out to one of the few pundits who had correctly predicted the outcome, Allan J. Lichtman. While many election forecasters base their findings exclusively on public opinion polls, Lichtman looks at the underlying fundamentals that have driven every presidential election since 1860. His 13 keys Using his 13 historical factors or “keys” (four political, seven performance, and two personality), that determine the outcome of presidential elections, Lichtman had been predicting Trump’s win since September 2016. In the updated 2020 edition of this classic text, Lichtman applies the keys to every presidential election since 1860 and shows readers the current state of the 2020 race. In doing so, he dispels much of the mystery behind electoral politics and challenges many traditional assumptions. An indispensable resource for political junkies!
The Trump presidency alone is a topic of considerable public discussion and debate. Yet, Donald Trump signals much more than the behavior of a single person. He is a symptom and not the sole cause a greater malaise gripping the republic. Albert P. Melone argues that the Trump phenomenon is an instance of the rise of mass society and the decline of pluralist democracy. He points out that yesteryear’s Madisonian pluralist paradigm of democracy no longer aptly describes and explains the American political world as it now exists. By substituting the conceptual framework of mass society for the pluralism model, the author points the way to a more powerful and convincing explanation of the Trump phenomenon.
In Bureaucracy’s Masters and Minions: The Politics of Controlling the U.S. Bureaucracy , the author argues that political control of the bureaucracy from the president and the Congress is largely contingent on an agency’s internal characteristics of workforce composition, workforce responsibilities, and workforce organization. Through a revised principal-agent framework, the author explores an agent-principal model to use the agent as the starting-point of analysis. The author tests the agent-principal model across 14 years and 132 bureaus and finds that both the president and the House of Representatives exert influence over the bureaucracy, but agency characteristics such as the degree of politization among the workforce, the type of work the agency is engaged in, and the hierarchical nature of the agency affects how agencies are controlled by their political masters. In a detailed case study of one agency, the U.S. Department of Education, the author finds that education policy over a 65-year period is elite-led, and that that hierarchical nature of the department conditions political principals’ influence. This book works to overcome three hurdles that have plagued bureaucratic studies: the difficulty of uniform sampling across the bureaucracy, the overuse of case studies, and the overreliance on the principal-agent theoretical approach.
These are challenging times, and perhaps it is here that humans are viewed at their best and their worst. Everyone is accountable for what they say and do. And since government at all levels and its officials are not exempted, and who operate in a more open environment than they once did, primarily as a result of legislation providing for open meetings, more accessible public information, and under more open and recordable visibility, public officials must be more cautious and more aware of the decisions they make. Although a conscious effort on the part of public officials to avoid personal liability suits will help reduce the number of suits filed against them or the government, some preventive and proactive measures–e.g., becoming more proficient in the duties and responsibilities of office, cultural and social education, sensitivity training–must be taken to avoid the possibility of successful liability lawsuits.
Public officials are held morally responsible for their decisions, and they are to be respected for the demands placed on them by virtue of that office. However, individuals, including those injured by a particular governmental policy or an official's decision, are not accepting grievous actions which go against their individual interests. Many are not content with exhausting administrative remedies; rather, they are turning to the courts for a remedy in cases of wrongful death, misuse of legal procedure, etc. A conscious, individual effort to reduce the occurrence liability suits through responsible public decisions will help hold the number of successful suits to a minimum.
In the second half of the twentieth century, strategic and economic conditions compelled the U.S. government to start running budget deficits on a permanent basis. A new role of global leadership in containing communism required a robust military establishment. The federal government overwhelmingly relied for general revenue on an income tax code that also could not impede economic growth. And general revenue increasingly funded transfer payments in an expanding entitlement state. Fiscal overstretch resulted in unending deficits that continue to this day. At first the shift to deficit normality was not obvious. The Truman and Eisenhower administrations attempted to hold the line on deficits, but this commitment gradually waned in subsequent years. Arms, Revenue, and Entitlements: U.S. Deficits in the Cold War, 1945–1991 looks at the Cold War era from a budgetary perspective and how defense spending, income tax reductions, and entitlement programs all contributed to the emergence of the deficit normative state. As national debt continues to climb in the twenty-first century, Arms, Revenue, and Entitlements shows how the U.S. reached this point and how a comprehensive policy approach might again restore fiscal stability.
In the early 1980s, China undertook a massive reform that dismantled its socialist rural collectives and divided the land among millions of small peasant families. Known as the decollectivization campaign, it is one of the most significant reforms in China's transition to a market economy. From the beginning, the official Chinese accounts, and many academic writings, uncritically portray this campaign as a huge success, both for the peasants and the economy as a whole. This mainstream history argues that the rural communes, suffering from inefficiency, greatly improved agricultural productivity under the decollectivization reform. It also describes how the peasants, due to their dissatisfaction with the rural regime, spontaneously organized and collectively dismantled the collective system. A closer examination suggests a much different and more nuanced story. By combining historical archives, field work, and critical statistical examinations, From Commune to Capitalism argues that the decollectivization campaign was neither a bottom-up, spontaneous peasant movement, nor necessarily efficiency-improving. On the contrary, the reform was mainly a top-down, coercive campaign, and most of the efficiency gains came from simply increasing the usage of inputs, such as land and labor, rather than institutional changes. The book also asks an important question: Why did most of the peasants peacefully accept this reform? Zhun Xu answers that the problems of the communes contributed to the passiveness of the peasantry; that decollectivization, by depoliticizing the peasantry and freeing massive rural labor to compete with the urban workers, served as both the political and economic basis for consequent Chinese neoliberal reforms and a massive increase in all forms of economic, political, and social inequality. Decollectivization was, indeed, a huge success, although far from the sort suggested by mainstream accounts.
One of the most influential studies ever written in the field of development economics, this book has, since first publication in 1957, bred a whole school of followers who are producing further works along the lines indicated by Baran. Concerned with the generation and use of economic surplus, it analyzes from this point of view both the advanced and the underdeveloped countries. A work in political economy rather than solely in economics, this book treats the economic transformation of society as one facet of a total social and political evolution.