Математика
Различные книги в жанре МатематикаBayesian Methods for Structural Dynamics and Civil Engineering
Bayesian methods are a powerful tool in many areas of science and engineering, especially statistical physics, medical sciences, electrical engineering, and information sciences. They are also ideal for civil engineering applications, given the numerous types of modeling and parametric uncertainty in civil engineering problems. For example, earthquake ground motion cannot be predetermined at the structural design stage. Complete wind pressure profiles are difficult to measure under operating conditions. Material properties can be difficult to determine to a very precise level – especially concrete, rock, and soil. For air quality prediction, it is difficult to measure the hourly/daily pollutants generated by cars and factories within the area of concern. It is also difficult to obtain the updated air quality information of the surrounding cities. Furthermore, the meteorological conditions of the day for prediction are also uncertain. These are just some of the civil engineering examples to which Bayesian probabilistic methods are applicable. Familiarizes readers with the latest developments in the field Includes identification problems for both dynamic and static systems Addresses challenging civil engineering problems such as modal/model updating Presents methods applicable to mechanical and aerospace engineering Gives engineers and engineering students a concrete sense of implementation Covers real-world case studies in civil engineering and beyond, such as: structural health monitoring seismic attenuation finite-element model updating hydraulic jump artificial neural network for damage detection air quality prediction Includes other insightful daily-life examples Companion website with MATLAB code downloads for independent practice Written by a leading expert in the use of Bayesian methods for civil engineering problems This book is ideal for researchers and graduate students in civil and mechanical engineering or applied probability and statistics. Practicing engineers interested in the application of statistical methods to solve engineering problems will also find this to be a valuable text. MATLAB code and lecture materials for instructors available at http://www.wiley.com/go/yuen
Quantitative Methods. An Introduction for Business Management
An accessible introduction to the essential quantitative methods for making valuable business decisions Quantitative methods-research techniques used to analyze quantitative data-enable professionals to organize and understand numbers and, in turn, to make good decisions. Quantitative Methods: An Introduction for Business Management presents the application of quantitative mathematical modeling to decision making in a business management context and emphasizes not only the role of data in drawing conclusions, but also the pitfalls of undiscerning reliance of software packages that implement standard statistical procedures. With hands-on applications and explanations that are accessible to readers at various levels, the book successfully outlines the necessary tools to make smart and successful business decisions. Progressing from beginner to more advanced material at an easy-to-follow pace, the author utilizes motivating examples throughout to aid readers interested in decision making and also provides critical remarks, intuitive traps, and counterexamples when appropriate. The book begins with a discussion of motivations and foundations related to the topic, with introductory presentations of concepts from calculus to linear algebra. Next, the core ideas of quantitative methods are presented in chapters that explore introductory topics in probability, descriptive and inferential statistics, linear regression, and a discussion of time series that includes both classical topics and more challenging models. The author also discusses linear programming models and decision making under risk as well as less standard topics in the field such as game theory and Bayesian statistics. Finally, the book concludes with a focus on selected tools from multivariate statistics, including advanced regression models and data reduction methods such as principal component analysis, factor analysis, and cluster analysis. The book promotes the importance of an analytical approach, particularly when dealing with a complex system where multiple individuals are involved and have conflicting incentives. A related website features Microsoft Excel® workbooks and MATLAB® scripts to illustrate concepts as well as additional exercises with solutions. Quantitative Methods is an excellent book for courses on the topic at the graduate level. The book also serves as an authoritative reference and self-study guide for financial and business professionals, as well as readers looking to reinforce their analytical skills.
The Mathematics of Infinity. A Guide to Great Ideas
Praise for the First Edition «. . . an enchanting book for those people in computer science or mathematics who are fascinated by the concept of infinity.»—Computing Reviews «. . . a very well written introduction to set theory . . . easy to read and well suited for self-study . . . highly recommended.»—Choice The concept of infinity has fascinated and confused mankind for centuries with theories and ideas that cause even seasoned mathematicians to wonder. The Mathematics of Infinity: A Guide to Great Ideas, Second Edition uniquely explores how we can manipulate these ideas when our common sense rebels at the conclusions we are drawing. Continuing to draw from his extensive work on the subject, the author provides a user-friendly presentation that avoids unnecessary, in-depth mathematical rigor. This Second Edition provides important coverage of logic and sets, elements and predicates, cardinals as ordinals, and mathematical physics. Classic arguments and illustrative examples are provided throughout the book and are accompanied by a gradual progression of sophisticated notions designed to stun readers' intuitive view of the world. With an accessible and balanced treatment of both concepts and theory, the book focuses on the following topics: Logic, sets, and functions Prime numbers Counting infinite sets Well ordered sets Infinite cardinals Logic and meta-mathematics Inductions and numbers Presenting an intriguing account of the notions of infinity, The Mathematics of Infinity: A Guide to Great Ideas, Second Edition is an insightful supplement for mathematics courses on set theory at the undergraduate level. The book also serves as a fascinating reference for mathematically inclined individuals who are interested in learning about the world of counterintuitive mathematics.
Applied Survey Methods. A Statistical Perspective
A complete, hands-on guide to the use of statistical methods for obtaining reliable and practical survey research Applied Survey Methods provides a comprehensive outline of the complete survey process, from design to publication. Filling a gap in the current literature, this one-of-a-kind book describes both the theory and practical applications of survey research with an emphasis on the statistical aspects of survey methods. The book begins with a brief historic overview of survey research methods followed by a discussion that details the needed first steps for carrying out a survey, including the definition of a target population, the selection of a sampling frame, and the outline of a questionnaire with several examples that include common errors to avoid in the wording of questions. Throughout the book, the author provides an accessible discussion on the methodological problems that are associated with the survey process, outlining real data and examples while also providing insight on the future of survey research. Chapter coverage explores the various aspects of the survey process and the accompanying numerical techniques, including: Simple and composite sampling designs Estimators Data collection and editing The quality of results The non-response problem Weighting adjustments and methods Disclosure control The final chapter addresses the growing popularity of Web surveys, and the associated methodological problems are discussed, including solutions to common pitfalls. Exercises are provided throughout with selected answers included at the end of the book, while a related Web site features additional solutions to exercises and a downloadable demo version of the Blaise system of computer-assisted interviewing. Access to the freely available SimSam software is also available on the related Web site and provides readers with the tools needed to simulate samples from finite populations as well as visualize the effects of sample size, non-response, and the use of different estimation procedures. Applied Survey Methods is an excellent book for courses on survey research and non-response in surveys at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a useful reference for practicing statisticians and survey methodologists who work in both government and private research sectors.
Surveying Cultures. Discovering Shared Conceptions and Sentiments
Surveying Cultures uniquely employs techniques rooted in survey methodology to discover cultural patterns in social science research. Examining both classical and emerging methods that are used to survey and assess differing norms among populations, the book successfully breaks new ground in the field, introducing a theory of measurement for ethnographic studies that employs the consensus-as-culture model. The book begins with a basic overview of cross-cultural measurement of sentiments and presents innovative and sophisticated analyses of measurement issues and of homogeneity among respondents. Subsequent chapters explore topics that are at the core of successful data collection and analysis in culture studies, including: The role of bipolar scales and Internet data collection in measuring sentiments Key methodological variables that determine the quality of quantitative data, including measurement errors, validity, and reliability New approaches to reliability and several new methods of assessing a respondent's degree of inculcation into group culture Sampling, coverage, nonresponse, and measurement errors, with an in-depth discussion of their occurrence in culture surveys, their impact assessments, and how current measurement techniques are constructed to help prevent these kinds of errors Common problems often encountered in the acquisition and communication of data, including identifying error variances, interpreting gender differences in responses, and defining the difference between cultures and subcultures Throughout the book, each topic is accompanied by a review of related methodological literature. For many of the presented concepts, the author includes a formal analysis of the related issues in measuring cultural norms and reports on analyses. Each chapter concludes with an organized list of major findings as well as an insightful outline of specific recommendations regarding practical problems in culture studies. Surveying Cultures serves as a valuable supplemental book to courses on survey and research methods at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an excellent reference for researchers in the fields of sociology, anthropology, psychology, and political science.
Empirical Model Building. Data, Models, and Reality
Praise for the First Edition «This…novel and highly stimulating book, which emphasizes solving real problems…should be widely read. It will have a positive and lasting effect on the teaching of modeling and statistics in general.» – Short Book Reviews This new edition features developments and real-world examples that showcase essential empirical modeling techniques Successful empirical model building is founded on the relationship between data and approximate representations of the real systems that generated that data. As a result, it is essential for researchers who construct these models to possess the special skills and techniques for producing results that are insightful, reliable, and useful. Empirical Model Building: Data, Models, and Reality, Second Edition presents a hands-on approach to the basic principles of empirical model building through a shrewd mixture of differential equations, computer-intensive methods, and data. The book outlines both classical and new approaches and incorporates numerous real-world statistical problems that illustrate modeling approaches that are applicable to a broad range of audiences, including applied statisticians and practicing engineers and scientists. The book continues to review models of growth and decay, systems where competition and interaction add to the complextiy of the model while discussing both classical and non-classical data analysis methods. This Second Edition now features further coverage of momentum based investing practices and resampling techniques, showcasing their importance and expediency in the real world. The author provides applications of empirical modeling, such as computer modeling of the AIDS epidemic to explain why North America has most of the AIDS cases in the First World and data-based strategies that allow individual investors to build their own investment portfolios. Throughout the book, computer-based analysis is emphasized and newly added and updated exercises allow readers to test their comprehension of the presented material. Empirical Model Building, Second Edition is a suitable book for modeling courses at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also an excellent reference for applied statisticians and researchers who carry out quantitative modeling in their everyday work.
Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets. Adaptive Drift Modeling
A guide to modeling analyses for financial and sports gambling markets, with a focus on major current events Addressing the highly competitive and risky environments of current-day financial and sports gambling markets, Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets details the dynamic process of constructing effective forecasting rules based on both graphical patterns and adaptive drift modeling (ADM) of cointegrated time series. The book uniquely identifies periods of inefficiency that these markets oscillate through and develops profitable forecasting models that capitalize on irrational behavior exhibited during these periods. Providing valuable insights based on the author's firsthand experience, this book utilizes simple, yet unique, candlestick charts to identify optimal time periods in financial markets and optimal games in sports gambling markets for which forecasting models are likely to provide profitable trading and wagering outcomes. Featuring detailed examples that utilize actual data, the book addresses various topics that promote financial and mathematical literacy, including: Higher order ARMA processes in financial markets The effects of gambling shocks in sports gambling markets Cointegrated time series with model drift Modeling volatility Throughout the book, interesting real-world applications are presented, and numerous graphical procedures illustrate favorable trading and betting opportunities, which are accompanied by mathematical developments in adaptive model forecasting and risk assessment. A related web site features updated reviews in sports and financial forecasting and various links on the topic. Forecasting in Financial and Sports Gambling Markets is an excellent book for courses on financial economics and time series analysis at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels. The book is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners working in the areas of retail markets, quant funds, hedge funds, and time series. Also, anyone with a general interest in learning about how to profit from the financial and sports gambling markets will find this book to be a valuable resource.
Decision Theory. Principles and Approaches
Decision theory provides a formal framework for making logical choices in the face of uncertainty. Given a set of alternatives, a set of consequences, and a correspondence between those sets, decision theory offers conceptually simple procedures for choice. This book presents an overview of the fundamental concepts and outcomes of rational decision making under uncertainty, highlighting the implications for statistical practice. The authors have developed a series of self contained chapters focusing on bridging the gaps between the different fields that have contributed to rational decision making and presenting ideas in a unified framework and notation while respecting and highlighting the different and sometimes conflicting perspectives. This book: Provides a rich collection of techniques and procedures. Discusses the foundational aspects and modern day practice. Links foundations to practical applications in biostatistics, computer science, engineering and economics. Presents different perspectives and controversies to encourage readers to form their own opinion of decision making and statistics. Decision Theory is fundamental to all scientific disciplines, including biostatistics, computer science, economics and engineering. Anyone interested in the whys and wherefores of statistical science will find much to enjoy in this book.
Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics
A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistical models, including the multiple linear regression model, the hierarchical mean model, the logistic regression model, and the proportional hazards model. The book begins with an outline of the similarities and differences between Bayesian and the likelihood approaches to statistics. Subsequent chapters present key techniques for using computer software to draw Monte Carlo samples from the incompletely known posterior distribution and performing the Bayesian inference calculated from these samples. Topics of coverage include: Direct ways to draw a random sample from the posterior by reshaping a random sample drawn from an easily sampled starting distribution The distributions from the one-dimensional exponential family Markov chains and their long-run behavior The Metropolis-Hastings algorithm Gibbs sampling algorithm and methods for speeding up convergence Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling Using numerous graphs and diagrams, the author emphasizes a step-by-step approach to computational Bayesian statistics. At each step, important aspects of application are detailed, such as how to choose a prior for logistic regression model, the Poisson regression model, and the proportional hazards model. A related Web site houses R functions and Minitab macros for Bayesian analysis and Monte Carlo simulations, and detailed appendices in the book guide readers through the use of these software packages. Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics is an excellent book for courses on computational statistics at the upper-level undergraduate and graduate levels. It is also a valuable reference for researchers and practitioners who use computer programs to conduct statistical analyses of data and solve problems in their everyday work.
Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty. An Introduction to Statistical, Phenomenological and Computational Methods
Modelling has permeated virtually all areas of industrial, environmental, economic, bio-medical or civil engineering: yet the use of models for decision-making raises a number of issues to which this book is dedicated: How uncertain is my model ? Is it truly valuable to support decision-making ? What kind of decision can be truly supported and how can I handle residual uncertainty ? How much refined should the mathematical description be, given the true data limitations ? Could the uncertainty be reduced through more data, increased modeling investment or computational budget ? Should it be reduced now or later ? How robust is the analysis or the computational methods involved ? Should / could those methods be more robust ? Does it make sense to handle uncertainty, risk, lack of knowledge, variability or errors altogether ? How reasonable is the choice of probabilistic modeling for rare events ? How rare are the events to be considered ? How far does it make sense to handle extreme events and elaborate confidence figures ? Can I take advantage of expert / phenomenological knowledge to tighten the probabilistic figures ? Are there connex domains that could provide models or inspiration for my problem ? Written by a leader at the crossroads of industry, academia and engineering, and based on decades of multi-disciplinary field experience, Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty gives a self-consistent introduction to the methods involved by any type of modeling development acknowledging the inevitable uncertainty and associated risks. It goes beyond the “black-box” view that some analysts, modelers, risk experts or statisticians develop on the underlying phenomenology of the environmental or industrial processes, without valuing enough their physical properties and inner modelling potential nor challenging the practical plausibility of mathematical hypotheses; conversely it is also to attract environmental or engineering modellers to better handle model confidence issues through finer statistical and risk analysis material taking advantage of advanced scientific computing, to face new regulations departing from deterministic design or support robust decision-making. Modelling Under Risk and Uncertainty: Addresses a concern of growing interest for large industries, environmentalists or analysts: robust modeling for decision-making in complex systems. Gives new insights into the peculiar mathematical and computational challenges generated by recent industrial safety or environmental control analysis for rare events. Implements decision theory choices differentiating or aggregating the dimensions of risk/aleatory and epistemic uncertainty through a consistent multi-disciplinary set of statistical estimation, physical modelling, robust computation and risk analysis. Provides an original review of the advanced inverse probabilistic approaches for model identification, calibration or data assimilation, key to digest fast-growing multi-physical data acquisition. Illustrated with one favourite pedagogical example crossing natural risk, engineering and economics, developed throughout the book to facilitate the reading and understanding. Supports Master/PhD-level course as well as advanced tutorials for professional training Analysts and researchers in numerical modeling, applied statistics, scientific computing, reliability, advanced engineering, natural risk or environmental science will benefit from this book.