Return to Winter. Douglas E. Schoen

      

      RETURN TO WINTER

      PRAISE FOR RETURN TO WINTER, PREVIOUSLY PUBLISHED AS THE RUSSIA-CHINA AXIS

      “The Russia-China Axis puts on the table what many have preferred to ignore or wish away, namely that our current foreign policy is causing grave and systemic harm to American interests all around the world. Schoen and Kaylan thoroughly document the problem and propose countermeasures that should jump-start a long-overdue national discussion of how America can right itself.”

      John Bolton

      Former United States ambassador to the United Nations

      “Doug Schoen and Melik Kaylan’s book The Russia-China Axis: The New Cold War and America’s Crisis of Leadership is a wake-up call for the resurrection of American strategic, visionary leadership in the face of a growing global crisis for liberal democratic states. Schoen and Kaylan identify this adversarial global environment and present strategies for using elements of our national power to secure freedom on this complex 21st-century battlefield. This is a must-read for those who care about America’s place in the world and her security.”

      Allen B. West

      Lieutenant colonel, U.S. Army, retired (1982–2004) Member of 112th U.S. Congress (2011–2013)

      “This book is a clarion call for American leaders to stand up against the burgeoning China-Russia axis that supports rogue states and values. Eloquently and with plentiful evidence, the authors splinter any illusion that these two rising powers share U.S. values or interests. They note that a new Cold War has erupted, and that we are the only ones not fighting. This is a must-read for anybody concerned about American foreign policy.”

      Anders Åslund

      Peterson Institute for International Economics Former economic adviser to the Russian government and author of How Capitalism Was Built

      © 2014, 2015 by Douglas E. Schoen and Melik Kaylan

      Preface © 2015 by Douglas E. Schoen and Melik Kaylan

      All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise, without the prior written permission of Encounter Books, 900 Broadway, Suite 601, New York, New York, 10003.

      First American edition published in 2014 by Encounter Books,

      an activity of Encounter for Culture and Education, Inc.,

      a nonprofit, tax exempt corporation.

      Encounter Books website address: www.encounterbooks.com

      The paper used in this publication meets the minimum requirements of ANSI/NISO Z39.48–1992 (R 1997) (Permanence of Paper).

      First paperback edition published in 2015.

      THE LIBRARY OF CONGRESS HAS CATALOGUED

      THE HARDCOVER EDITION AS FOLLOWS:

      Schoen, Douglas E., 1953–, author.

      Return to winter: Russia, China, and the new cold war against America / by Douglas E. Schoen and Melik Kaylan.

      pages cm

      Originally published in hardback in 2014 as: The Russia-China axis: the new cold war and America’s crisis of leadership.

      Includes bibliographical references and index.

      ISBN 978-1-59403-844-0 (ebook)

      1. United States—Foreign relations—21st century. 2. United States—Foreign relations administration—21st century. 3. National security—United States. 4. Russia (Federation)—Foreign relations—China. 5. China—Foreign relations—Russia (Federation) 6. World politics—2005–2015. I. Kaylan, Melik, 1962–, author. II. Title.

      JZ1480.S358 2014

      327.47051—dc23

      2014002441

      Contents

Authors’ Note

Foreword

Preface to the Paperback Edition

Introduction

CHAPTER 1 The New Terrain

CHAPTER 2 Rogue Regimes: How the Axis Uses Proxies to Win

      CHAPTER 3 Cyber Security: The New Battlefield

      CHAPTER 4 Military Supremacy: America’s Fading Edge

      CHAPTER 5 Nuclear Security: They Build Up, We Build Down

      CHAPTER 6 The Economic Contest: America on the Sidelines

      CHAPTER 7 Intelligence Wars: Stealing America’s Secrets

      CHAPTER 8 Propaganda Wars: Losing Ground in the Battle for Hearts and Minds

      CHAPTER 9 Countermoves: Some Thoughts on Fighting Back

      CONCLUSION Why America Must Wake Up

      WHAT TO DO Russia

      WHAT TO DO China

      WHAT TO DO The New Axis

      WHAT TO DO Rebuilding Alliances

      Endnotes

      Index

       Authors’ Note

      We wrote most of this book before the recent, unfolding events in Ukraine, as well as before further developments confirming the existence of a Russian-Chinese alliance. These events and others, in our view, only confirm the validity and relevance of our arguments, but we offer this foreword as a more current take on the state of affairs as we go to press (2014).

       Foreword

       “Now Russia-China cooperation is advancing to a new stage of comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction. It would not be wrong to say that it has reached the highest level in all its centuries-long history.”

      —VLADIMIR PUTIN¹

       “[Russia’s and China’s] enhanced partnership marks the first emergence of a global coalition against American hegemony since the fall of the Berlin Wall.”

      —CHARLES KRAUTHAMMER²

       “The Sino-Soviet rift that brought the two countries to the brink of nuclear war in the ’60s has been healed rather dramatically.”

      —STROBE TALBOTT³

       “The echoes of the non-aggression pacts of the 1930s get louder in this age of American retreat.”

      —WALL STREET JOURNAL⁴

       “If not letting America have its own way is Mr. Obama’s objective, he is an unparalleled foreign-policy success.”

      —JOHN BOLTON⁵

      “This will be the biggest construction project in the world for the next four years, without exaggeration,” Vladimir Putin said in Shanghai in May 2014, as he raised a glass to drink a toast with Chinese president Xi Jinping.⁶

      The two leaders were celebrating the signing of a 30-year, $400 billion natural-gas deal between