The Fifth Season. Kerry B Collison

military officers who agree that this sudden shift in Indonesian politics can only benefit the Chinese. Although China has committed itself to expenditures exceeding fifty billion dollars over the next fifteen years to rebuild and expand its nuclear power facilities, their oil dependency is alarmingly high.

      China’s economy is growing at an amazing rate, and we can be certain that they would have considered precisely how vulnerable they would be in the event of any interruption to their oil supplies. Indonesia has archipelago status over its shipping lanes. It makes sense that China would be delighted to mend fences with them and even offer to cooperate in other areas, even if this translates into providing their neighbors with limited missile technology to boost Moslem morale.

      Should this eventuate, Mr. President, the Japanese people would most probably wake up one morning to discover that China had displaced them as the major trading partner with Indonesia and, subsequently, all ten of the ASEAN member nations. This would represent the world’s largest trading bloc, one which would continue to grow at the expense of both the European Union and our own NAFTA treaties.’ This was followed by silence as those present considered the ramifications of such an alliance, and the threat of having the doors closed to a potential consumer base which approached three billion people.

      ‘And Suhapto’s sudden infatuation with these militant Moslem groups, how does this fit in?’ the President left the question hanging for either of the two senior officers to respond.

      ‘We have a man inside the Mufti Muharam hierarchy who has confirmed that the Palace has agreed to the proposed shift in policy, one which will provide both the major Islamic groups with a substantial voice in future government. Our source is emphatic that the Palace has agreed to support radical changes in its position relating to minority religious groups, preventing the further spread of non-Moslem teachings. It seems that the aging President senses his end might be near, and is influenced by his approaching demise.

      In short, we might be witnessing the beginnings of an Indonesian sectarian state. Ever since Madame Suhapto passed away, the old man has turned much of his attention to studying the Koran, and has spent considerable time with senior members of the Islamic community, both in Indonesia, and the Arab states during recent Haj journeys to Mecca.’

      He paused for breath before adding, ‘and communication traffic between Iran, Iraq and even Libya has more than trebled with Indonesia over the past six months.’

      ‘And what if he suddenly drops dead, where would we be then? Would this resolve the problem?’ the President asked. Even he had been surprised at the Indonesian leader’s longevity.

      ‘This would depend on the military, and their choice or acceptance of whoever succeeds Suhapto.’

      ‘And this would be?’ The President asked, annoyed with his limited knowledge of those who might be considered candidates for the powerful position. It was difficult enough keeping up with the frequent leadership changes generated by political instability in Third World countries.

      ‘Suhapto has been extremely clever. Although his current Vice President, General Sulistio has considerable support from within the army, his popularity will most likely cost him the position. There is no nominated successor, nor is it likely that there would be any challenge to his leadership while he is still alive. It’s obvious that he intends remaining at the helm until he dies. Apart from the fact that he believes he is king and deserves to continue, he is discerning enough to realize that the incredible fortunes his family’s acquired would be at risk should he relinquish power.’

      ‘And our preferred successor, is he still a viable option?’

      ‘Since our last discussions Mr. President, we have received assurances from General Winarko. Fortunately, we now have two candidates. Both are very pro-American, well educated, and both appear opposed to any emergence of Moslem fundamentalism or moves towards providing the ulamas with any majority representation in government. Whatever happens, the military will continue to dominate the leadership, and government for some years to come.’

      ‘And our proposed strategy?’ he asked, knowing that whatever scheme his advisers had concocted, it would have its weaknesses, as he had discovered with past forays when his government had intervened in other countries’ power struggles.

      The Defense Secretary stepped in, taking control once again.

      ‘The Indonesian economy is on the brink of collapse. We have the ideal opportunity to kill two birds with one stone, so to speak.’ Cohen coughed, his throat the victim of in-depth discussions throughout the night in preparation for this morning’s presentation. ‘We could precipitate a change in government leadership, or at least provide the opportunity by refusing to support any further funding of loans to Indonesia through the IMF and World Bank. As he won’t step down, we could propose having the IMF insist that Suhapto unwind the cartels and monopolies he has given to family and friends, and present his government with a number of initiatives which would quickly erode his support both from the people, and the business community.’

      The Defence Secretary stopped, coughed again several times, apologized, then cleared his throat before continuing.

      ‘It will be the International Monetary Fund and World Bank insisting that changes to the existing financial systems be implemented, and not the United States. We obviously have the ability to direct the IMF and the World Bank due to our substantial positions in both of those organizations.

      It is most unlikely that the other member nations will balk, as they too recognize that there must be some fundamental changes in Indonesia’s economy if it is to have any realistic chance to repay their current debts. We’ve estimated that the interest alone accumulating on both the government and private sector debt is in excess of one hundred million dollars, a week.

      Apart from satisfying our own political agenda in relation to Indonesia, it would be in American interests for the IMF to press for the country’s leadership to initiate responsible steps to resolve their problems before U.S.

      investments are threatened. Should the IMF insist, that as part of any bail-out package subsidies on fuels, fertilizers and other basics be removed, these measures should generate sufficient ground swell along with their depleting dollar reserves, to create the desired environment for change.’

      ‘And if this fails?’ the President guessed he already knew the answer.

      Why did it so often come down to this?

      ‘Then our only other option would be to support a coup.’

      The American leader listened to the succinct statement, and slowly shook his head. He reached across and lifted the delicately shaped, silver-filigree keris, which had been decorated with precious stones and designed as a letter opener. It had been a gift from the Indonesian President, presented during his stay at Camp David the year before. Immediately, memories of Suhapto’s visit reminded him of the reciprocal invitation to join the aging Javanese on his ranch outside Jakarta. It would now be an opportunity lost, and he was saddened that the man who had been America’s friend for more than three decades, would now disappear from the world’s stage.

      He recalled listening to a Voice of America broadcast back in time, when he, not unlike many other young Americans who had avoided the draft and left for overseas, suffered severe homesickness and occasionally sat around in London with others in similar situations, wishing they could return home.

      It seemed, at the time, that his country might soon be fighting a war on two fronts as the violence in Indonesia escalated. When was that? he struggled to remember, deciding that it had to be somewhere in the mid-Sixties.

      He had not suffered the scars of war, as had so many of his fellow countrymen. Instead, he had only the unpleasant reminder of a wound he had received from falling down the British college steps. This recollection unconsciously sent his hand to touch the soreness which, until this day, remained along the length of his leg.

      ‘Thanks gentlemen,’ he said, rising, then moving to look out through the window. ‘You know what my preferred option is, of course,’ he said, tiredness evident in his voice. The President then