Dividing Divided States. Gregory F. Treverton

      Or as a close observer put it,

      Whatever the customary patterns of north-south migration may have been, and whatever the customary institutions which regulated those migrations, they will have been [irrevocably] changed by the war and the raiding. The only hope the northerners have of regaining the sorts of passage and grazing rights they used to have would be through face to face negotiation with the traditional southern receiving populations, pastoralists or farmers. This is something that could be facilitated for them by outsiders, but in the end they will have to do it themselves.

      The challenge for governments is to play that facilitating role, while letting the populations talk face-to-face. In effect, the government would set up a forum where pastoralists and those affected by them could negotiate a new set of rights and conflict-resolution mechanisms based on the old ones but reflecting the new realities. Specifically, there would need to be discussion of livestock routes, watering places, resting places, normal grazing areas, reserve grazing areas, as well as emergency routes and grazing areas. These provisions should be negotiated specific subclan area by specific subclan area.

      Imagine Several Agreements

      If the peoples concerned negotiate face-to-face, agreements may well differ somewhat from one locality to another, reflecting differences in context and relations between pastoralists and receiving populations. In principle, some variation is to be expected, as a reflection of differing local circumstances. To be sure, though, if agreements are very different, the relatively “generous” ones may spur grievances from those on both sides who came out far less well. The key is lots of talks to try to defuse the sense that “referendum day” or “arbitration day” is a day of doom, another form of a drop-dead date. What might be possible to negotiate at the local level becomes harder when national politics interferes, frightening local groups or manipulating them.

      Gather Data

      One relatively unthreatening way to start would be to begin by collecting data. What are the numbers of migrants at various stages in the migration process? That data gathering might become a simple survey, trying to determine how many people would like to migrate but didn’t, why or why not, and the like. It would also ask about the adequacy of services as various stages in the migratory process. It would be important to structure the data gathering as participatory, involving both the pastoralists and the receiving populations.