The Atlas of Climate Change. Professor Kirstin Dow

at least 55 percent of emissions by industrialized countries ratified it. Long-wave radiation Radiation emitted by the Earth’s surface, the atmosphere, and clouds, also known as terrestrial or infrared radiation. Mitigation Anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases. MOP Meeting of Parties to the Kyoto Protocol. Multidecadal variability Climate variations occurring over timescales of one to three decades. Paleoclimate Climate for periods prior to the development of measuring instruments, including historic and geologic time, for which only proxy climate records are available. Photovoltaics Panels used to convert the sun’s radiation into electricity, also called solar cells. Precipitation Water in solid or liquid form that falls to Earth’s surface from clouds. Proxy climate indicator A preserved record of climate conditions before the instrumental record, derived using physical or biophysical principles. Radiative forcing Change in the net vertical radiation at the boundary between the lower and upper atmosphere (the tropopause) due to an internal change or a change in the external forcing of the climate system, such as a change in the concentration of carbon dioxide or the output of the sun. Terrestrial Relating to the land. Thermohaline circulation Large-scale density-driven circulation in the ocean, caused by differences in temperature (thermo) and salinity (haline). UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted on 9 May 1992 in New York and signed at the 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro by more than 150 countries and the European Community. Its ultimate objective is the “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” It contains commitments for all Parties and entered into force in March 1994. Weather The state of the atmosphere at some place and time described in terms of such variables as temperature, cloudiness, precipitation and wind. Regions Annex B countries are listed in Annex B in the Kyoto Protocol and have agreed to a target for their greenhouse gas emissions. They include the Annex I countries except Turkey and Belarus. Annex I countries Group of countries included in Annex I (as amended in 1998) to the UNFCCC, including all the developed countries in the OECD, and economies in transition. By default, the other countries are referred to as non-Annex I countries. Under Articles 4.2(a) and 4.2(b) of the Convention, Annex I countries commit themselves to the aim of returning to their 1990 levels of greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2000. EIT Economies in transition, countries with national economies in the process of changing from a planned economic system to a market economy. Refers to the former communist countries of Europe. EU European Union. Data for 2000 to 2004 refer to 15 members: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands Portugal, Spain, Sweden and United Kingdom. Data for 2004 onwards refer to 25 member countries, which includes Cyprus, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. G8 Group of Eight countries: Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, USA, and Russia. The heads of government hold an annual economic and political summit meeting in the country currently holding the rotating presidency. LDCs The least developed countries, identified as such by the United Nations. OECD Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. 30 member countries sharing a commitment to democratic government and the market economy. OPEC Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.

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      Impacts, vulnerability, and adaptation Climate change impacts are the consequences of natural and human systems. The impacts depend on the vulnerability of the system, in the climate change literature defined as a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity. However, vulnerability has other common definitions. In disaster planning, risk is the outcome of vulnerability (social, economic and environmental exposure and sensitivity) and hazard (the probability and magnitude of an extreme event). In development planning and poverty assessment, vulnerability is described as exposure to multiple stresses, to shocks and to risk over a longer time period, with a sense of defencelessness and insecurity. Both impacts and vulnerability may be reduced by adaptation – adjustments in natural or human systems to a new or changing environment. Various types of adaptation can be distinguished, including anticipatory and reactive adaptation, private and public adaptation, and autonomous and planned adaptation. For people, adaptation can be seen as a process of social learning. Adaptive capacity is the ability to understand climate changes and hazards, to evaluate their consequences for vulnerable peoples, places and economies, and to moderate potential damages to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope with the consequences. Theory, prediction, forecasts, and scenarios A scientific theory is a coherent understanding of some aspect of our world, based on a well-established body of observations and interpretation. In popular culture, the label “theory” may be used in a derogatory manner to refer to propositions put forward to challenge a mainstream view. There is some confusion regarding how we view the future. In experimental language, we talk of predicted outcomes. So, a computer simulation of climate change predicts global warming, say of 3°C by 2100. This prediction depends on a set of underlying assumptions. A climate prediction is usually in the form of probabilities of climate variables such as temperature or precipitation, with lead times up to several seasons. The term climate projection is commonly used for longer-range predictions that have a higher degree of uncertainty and a lesser degree of specificity. For example, this term is often used to describe future climate change, which depends on the uncertain consequences of greenhouse gas emissions and land use change, in addition to the feedbacks within the atmosphere, oceans and land surface. It is extremely difficult to anticipate future greenhouse gas emissions. Countries may adopt stronger controls, industry and technology might reduce their carbon intensity, or consumers might rebel and ecological feedbacks might accelerate climate change. Where our understanding of the future is weak, we often use the term scenario: a plausible and often simplified description of how the future may develop, based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key driving forces and relationships. Scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts and sometimes may be based on a narrative storyline. Greenhouse gas emission scenarios To enable comparisons to be made between scenarios, in 1996 the IPCC issued its Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES), which outlined a number of possible scenarios. These are now used by scientists to clarify the assumptions behind different emission pathways and the consequences for climate change. Scenario A1 represents a future world of very rapid economic growth, low population growth, and rapid introduction of more efficient technologies. Major underlying themes are economic and cultural convergence and capacity building, with a substantial reduction in regional differences in per capita income. The A1 scenario family develops into three alternative directions of technological change in the energy system: fossil-intensive (A1FI), non-fossil energy sources (A1T), or a balance across all sources (A1B). Scenario A2 portrays a very heterogeneous world. The underlying theme is that of strengthening regional cultural identities, with high population growth rates, and less concern for rapid economic development. Scenario B1 represents a convergent world with a global population that peaks in mid-century, rapid change in economic structures toward a service and information economy, with reductions in material intensity, and the introduction of clean and resource-efficient technologies. The emphasis is on global solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability, including improved equity, but without additional climate initiatives. Scenario B2 depicts a world in which the emphasis is on local solutions to economic, social, and environmental sustainability. It is a heterogeneous world with less rapid, and more diverse technological change than in A1 and B1. In 2010, the IPCC developed a scenario framework based on common profiles of greenhouse gas emissions, called Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Climate results using these emissions scenarios will form the basis for the IPCC AR5.

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      Signs of Change

      Part 1

      In 2010 and 2011, floods in Pakistan, Australia, and China; heat waves and forest fires in Russia and in the USA; drought in the Amazon, and record-breaking temperatures around the world illustrated that the climate is already dangerous. The global average temperature in 2010 tied for the warmest year on record. The minimum extent of Arctic sea ice was the third-lowest measured. This first decade of this new millennium was itself the warmest observed. While there are uncertain elements in our knowledge of climate change, and this knowledge is sketchier in some areas than others, the big picture is becoming increasingly clear. The issue is