Putin's Master Plan. Douglas E. Schoen

no longer as far away as it once appeared. Putin has proven that he is determined to get there and is willing to expend Russian blood and treasure on the effort. This is no pipe dream, no revanchist delusion. This is real. It is no longer such a stretch to imagine Russians dashing across open fields in Lithuania or shelling towns in Poland—instead of in Ukraine.

      There’s just one problem with that scenario. Poland and Lithuania, unlike Ukraine, are NATO members. That means that under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, an attack on Poland or Lithuania is considered an attack on every NATO country, from America to Germany to Greece. Indeed, it was Article 5 that allowed America to rally European allies to its side in the aftermath of 9/11 and mount a joint effort against the Taliban in Afghanistan. In the event of a Russian attack on a Baltic state or on Poland, we should expect our allies to make a similar demand of us.

      Russian direct action against NATO looms on the horizon as Putin ratchets up his provocations in the Baltic States. Putin is betting that even if he were to attack Poland or a Baltic country, NATO and Europe would fail to respond, just as they failed to respond to the attacks on Georgia and Ukraine—even though in the case of Ukraine, the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 guaranteed the country’s territorial integrity.⁵⁸ NATO members, especially the United States, must ask themselves the following questions: Are we willing to risk the lives of our sons and daughters to protect far-flung European countries that border Russia? Will Peoria really fight for Poland? Putin is determined to test the limits of the NATO alliance and push the partnership past its breaking point, leaving Europe defenseless against a re-armed Russia. Eventually, a miscalculated Russian attack on a NATO country could provoke a major European war—or even a world war.⁵⁹

      American and European leaders have been blindsided by Putin’s ruthless pursuit of power and influence. There has been an across-the-board leadership failure in the West. Sanctions against Russia have not gone nearly far enough and have not forced Putin to change course in Ukraine or warned him off from future aggression.⁶⁰ Putin has provided separatists in Ukraine with a seemingly unending supply of tanks and heavy weapons, but President Obama prevaricated for months before offering Kiev nonlethal military assistance and a handful of advisors.⁶¹ Our European NATO allies, who have never carried the full burden of their own defense, have little to offer the Ukrainians in the way of hardware. What Europe can offer is financial relief and assistance as Ukraine’s economy continues to collapse, but so far, “the sums on offer from the outside world have been pitifully small,” as the Economist accurately notes.⁶² Meanwhile, sanction-strapped Russia has managed to direct millions of rubles to prop up the separatists.

      Western leaders have demonstrated a near-total lack of political courage in the face of Putin’s rampage across what the Kremlin disparagingly calls its “near abroad.” Even the cold-blooded murder by Russian-backed separatists of 298 civilians, including 211 EU citizens, aboard Malaysian Airlines flight 17, or MH17, using a Russian-made missile system was not enough to rally Europe.⁶³ The Netherlands, which lost 198 of its citizens aboard MH17, continues to receive 34 percent of its energy supplies from Russia.⁶⁴ No wonder Putin feels emboldened: American and European leaders never give him reason to fear serious consequences for his behavior.

      The West and the United States need to do much better. In this book, we will outline a set of policies to protect America and Europe, roll back Putin’s aggression, and promote the free development and integration of Eastern Europe into European and global institutions.

      Putin’s single-minded bid for regional hegemony, global influence, and a dramatic reorganization of the world order threatens Russia’s neighbors as well as the security of the Western world and the survival of Western values. Putin is pushing us toward the disturbing prospect of a new global struggle for power—with the locus of the struggle once again centered in Europe. The war in Ukraine is Russia’s latest and boldest assault on European stability. While Putin may no longer be aiming to establish full Russian control over Ukraine, his actions show a consistent logic and strategic coherence. Putin seeks to foment low-level conflict to undermine stability and ultimately promote expanded Russian influence, either directly or through proxies. This approach has worked in Georgia; it appears to be having great success in Ukraine; and there is every reason to believe, as we will show, that it could work in Moldova, the Baltic States, and anywhere else that Putin sets his sights.

      We in America and Europe must directly confront the stark truth of open Russian aggression toward the West and the real threat that it could lead to a major war in Europe. We must understand what the West stands to lose if Putin gets his way: a legacy of peace and prosperity; our values of liberty and human rights; and centuries-old democratic and civil institutions. From overt annexations of territory to covert support for separatists and radicals, Russia is actively undermining the stability of Europe in ways not seen since the fall of the Soviet Union. It is abundantly clear that Vladimir Putin is determined to undo the hard-won peace and triumph of liberal democratic values in Europe and to remake the continent in Russia’s image. We in the West must be equally as determined to preserve our security, defend our values, and put a stop to Putin’s dark, bloody vision for Europe’s future. To do that, we will have to reaffirm and reinvigorate the transatlantic alliance between the United States and Europe—the partnership that won the Cold War and that stands even now as the main obstacle to the fulfillment of Putin’s vision.

       CHAPTER 1

       The Transatlantic Relationship in the Twenty-First Century

      In times like this, when the security of the Euro-Atlantic area is challenged, the North Atlantic Alliance has not wavered. And it will not waver. For 65 years, we have been clear in our commitment to one another as Allies.

       —NATO SECRETARY GENERAL ANDERS FOGH RASMUSSEN ¹

      Today, the situation in Europe and America is grim. The transatlantic relationship, forged in the aftermath of World War II to resist Soviet expansion, has deteriorated to a breaking point. Russia has invaded Ukraine and is challenging American power around the world. Migrants from the Middle East and North Africa are streaming across the Mediterranean and up through Turkey, driving a crisis of identity and culture that threatens to end the European Union as we know it, and already appears to have driven Britain from the EU. Economically, the postrecession “new normal” of slow growth and declining labor force participation has left millions of working Americans and Europeans struggling to make ends meet. Politically, far-right nationalists and far-left socialists are gaining in Europe, while in America the Democratic and Republican parties are failing to inspire an increasingly dissatisfied electorate. The transatlantic community is in worse shape than at any point since the end of the Cold War, and we have almost certainly not seen the worst of it yet.

      No one has taken a keener interest in the West’s weakness than Vladimir Putin. He has seized the opportunity that Western vulnerability presents, driving internal and external crises, leveraging Russian advantages, and rebuilding the Kremlin’s global power and importance. Putin has struck at the core of the transatlantic alliance, breeding Euro-skeptical parties that want to do away with the EU and encouraging anti-American politicians who advocate for the dissolution of NATO. Putin has fostered and fomented crises from Syria to Ukraine and beyond, starting fires faster than the West can put them out, while exhausting our resources and willpower. Putin has even gone after American and European allies, cutting arms deals with Washington-aligned Arab nations and rekindling old Soviet connections in Latin America and Africa. Putin and Russia have launched nothing less than a full frontal assault against the transatlantic alliance.

      Of course, Russia faces many challenges of its own, not least of which are the demographic implications of a shrinking, graying population and the persistent challenges of an economy that depends almost entirely on oil and gas exports. In many ways, Russia remains, per German chancellor Helmut Schmidt’s famous formulation, “Upper Volta with missiles.”² Putin is a strongman dictator who has short-circuited Russia’s democratic system, ruling over a deeply troubled and divided society that has used petrodollars to paper over the unresolved political, economic, and psychological scars of the Soviet collapse.