Putin's Master Plan. Douglas E. Schoen

of Russian territorial expansion in Europe. As a direct result of this inaction, more Ukrainians die, and Russia is emboldened to continue its conquest of Eastern Europe.

      Not every NATO member has turned a blind eye to Ukraine’s desperate need for military assistance. Lithuania has agreed to supply Ukraine with lethal military equipment.¹³ Similarly, Poland has approved plans for a joint Polish-Lithuanian-Ukrainian brigade of 4,500 troops, further enhancing the ability of these militaries to cooperate and sending a clear signal to the Kremlin.¹⁴ This is exactly the sort of confidence-building solidarity with Ukraine that the United States and major NATO powers should be showing. Instead, America, Canada, and the United Kingdom have sent “instructors” to help “train” Ukrainian troops.¹⁵ Without the proper equipment and weapons necessary to counter Russian capabilities, no amount of training will give the Ukrainian military a fighting chance. The Obama administration has claimed that nonlethal aid to Ukraine has helped, but as Democratic senator Robert Menendez puts it, “Providing nonlethal equipment like night vision goggles is all well and good, but giving the Ukrainians the ability to see Russians coming but not the weapons to stop them is not the answer.”¹⁶

      Indeed, it is shameful that the United States, once heralded as the arsenal of democracy, has not provided Ukraine with the weapons it needs to defend itself. Defense Secretary Ash Carter has said that he is “very much inclined” to provide Ukraine with lethal aid, but Obama has yet to follow the advice of America’s top defense official.¹⁷ Ben Rhodes, Obama’s deputy national security advisor, went so far as to say that “we don’t think the answer to the crisis in Ukraine is simply to inject more weapons.”¹⁸ Perhaps Obama would do better to heed the advice of former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey, who thinks that “we should absolutely consider lethal aid and it ought to be in the context of NATO allies because Putin’s ultimate objective is to fracture NATO.”¹⁹ A spokesman for former House speaker John Boehner was just as unequivocal, suggesting that “the Ukrainians are begging for help, and the Congress is begging the administration to provide the defensive lethal assistance we authorized in December. Our allies deserve better.”²⁰

      We are witnessing a partial unraveling of the European security order, driven by America’s abdication of its obligation to protect Europe and a failed rebalancing of responsibilities within NATO, both taking place during a period of overt Russian military aggression and territorial expansion. Whether this partial unraveling becomes a full-blown breakdown depends on whether Western leaders wake up and address the Russian threat. So far, the response has been anemic.

      Part of the problem is that America cannot turn the tide against Russia on its own. NATO’s European members, having failed to meet their defense spending obligations, seem helpless against a massive and constantly growing Russian military budget. Western Europe has been lulled into complacency by decades of peace, forgetting that the peace it has enjoyed was accomplished by trillions of dollars of American defense spending. More recently, its leaders have been blinded by political correctness. Diplomacy and political outreach are all well and good, but when it comes to protecting a country, there is no substitute for lots of troops, tanks, jets, missiles, guns, and other military equipment that might make an aggressor think twice. Western Europeans, insulated from an increasingly violent world by American defense guarantees, seem to have forgotten this truism. Putin has not. Russia’s defense budget is shattering records, and its nuclear forces are expanding so rapidly that experts are warning of a new arms race.²¹ America and Western Europe, by contrast, cut defense spending last year.²²

      NATO recommends that each member state spend 2 percent of its annual gross domestic product on defense.²³ This is a fair, commonsense arrangement that asks each country to contribute to common defense according to its means, even though what this involves, in real terms, is that large economies like the United States, the UK, and Germany shoulder most of the spending burden. Historically, America has far exceeded this 2 percent target, and despite defense cuts and sequestration, the United States is on track to spend 3.6 percent of GDP on defense in 2015. And only four other NATO states even will spend enough to meet the 2 percent target: Greece, Poland, the UK, and Estonia.²⁴ Some countries, including Italy, Belgium, and Spain, are only spending half of what they should be.²⁵ Even worse, countries like France and Germany, already well below the 2 percent target, are cutting their defense budgets.²⁶ Because these are two of the largest economies in NATO, these cuts will have a real impact on the ability of NATO to fund its operations and respond to Russian aggression. But Berlin and Paris are, apparently, unconcerned with the military consequences of these budget cuts.