Extreme Events and Climate Change. Группа авторов

Chapter 7 Sanchez Vargas et al. analyze individuals’ behavior and the impact of extreme heat when considering socioeconomic and weather variables. Using a Cobb‐Douglas utility function framework they find that individuals’ socioeconomic characteristics interact well in explaining the impact of extremes on individuals’ welfare. In Chapter 8 Tan and Liu use the latest migration theory to analyze the relationship between extreme event occurrence and migration patterns in China and extend it to include the concept of adaptative capacity. They further analyze how an individual’s political participation affects his or her migration decision when considered in the context of extreme event occurrence. Their findings suggest that in order for individuals to adapt to weather variability, local governments should provide financial incentives and social assistance programs. Furthermore, Tan and Liu suggest that citizens’ participation is key to increasing adaptive capacity in the presence of weather variability. In Chapter 9 Lozano et al. estimate the impact of extreme weather events on internal migration in Guatemala for the 1997–2002 period. They find that drought occurrence in the municipality of origin significantly reduces migration, whereas extreme precipitation increases migration.

      In Chapter 10 Vanos et al. then demonstrate that heat exposure is both a physical and mental health risk in many occupations. They further describe the physiological effects of extreme heat and provide metrics for quantifying these effects. In Chapter 11 Collins and Paxton focus on tropical cyclones, the largest and most intense storms on the planet. They begin with outlining the wind and rainfall processes that present danger to coastal and even inland communities, and they conclude with practices that can be undertaken before the storm to mitigate losses as well as techniques after the storm to measure losses. In Chapter 12 Raghavendra and Milrad find a relationship between heat waves in Florida and extreme precipitation events a few days later. The compound nature of such sequential extreme events exacerbates the impacts that would be experienced by just one or the other.

      Finally, in Chapter 13 Shaw et al. analyze the impact of weather‐related variables on economic activity for 12 sectors of the US economy, including retail, forestry, agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and finance. They use a nonlinear framework to show that increases in temperature improve economic outcomes up to a threshold temperature where economic activity is then negatively affected. Results are particularly strong for construction, forestry, and mining.

      This book focuses on the impacts of changes in extreme weather in a warming climate because this is the principal way that climate change directly affects human systems. Climate change impacts on agriculture are particularly apparent, and many of these chapters reflect this. The book is intended to survey topics and methods and is by no means a complete list of the impacts of extreme weather. Readers will find that some of these methods can be transferred from the applications in this book to other climate change impact topics in their own interest.

      This book is dedicated to the memory of Professor Anthony Janetos. Tony was an enthusiastic supporter of this book and recognized the urgent need to bring physical and social climate scientists together.

       Federico CastilloMichael WehnerDáithí A. Stone

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      ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

      Support from the National Science Foundation project “EaSM Advancing Extreme Value Analysis of High Impact Climate Change and Weather Events,” No. 1243333. and the Regional and Global Model Analysis (RGMA) program in the Biological and Environmental Research division of the Office of Science, United States Department of Energy is gratefully acknowledged by the editors of this book.

1 Synthesizing Observed Impacts of Extreme Weather Events Across Systems

       Dáithí A. Stone

       Dáithí A. Stone works at Global Climate Adaptation Partnership in the United Kingdom and Latvia

      ABSTRACT

      This