America's Great-Power Opportunity. Ali Wyne

      Revitalizing US Foreign Policy to Meet the Challenges of Strategic Competition

      Ali Wyne

      polity

      Copyright © Ali Wyne 2022

      The right of Ali Wyne to be identified as Author of this Work has been asserted in accordance with the UK Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.

      First published in 2022 by Polity Press

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      ISBN-13: 978-1-5095-4555-1

      A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library.

      Library of Congress Control Number: 2021947326

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Acknowledgments

      This book would not exist without Colin Clarke, a former colleague at the RAND Corporation who generously shared my interest in great-power competition with Louise Knight at Polity. I hope I can repay his quiet kindness one day, and I promise to pay it forward. My next debt, of course, is to Louise. Patient, discerning, and encouraging, she is the editor every writer dreams of having. She commissioned three superb reviewers to critique my initial proposal and another three to critique my first draft. Their combined feedback was instrumental in helping me determine the book’s structure, crystallize its arguments, and define its tone. Inès Boxman kept me on schedule and offered detailed guidance at every step of the publication process. And Manuela Tecusan copy-edited my final draft with extraordinary rigor and care, strengthening both the clarity of my prose and the logic of my arguments.

Elmira Bayrasli played an invaluable role in the completion of this book. I realized soon after I began formulating my proposal that I would need an extended period of uninterrupted time to grapple with great-power competition in a considered manner. The only way I would secure such a window would be to step down from a rewarding job I had at the time, not knowing when I would next find a position. Elmira gave me the courage I needed to take that leap of faith, impressing upon me that some of life’s most compelling opportunities arise when we take a detour and trust that we will be able to navigate the attendant uncertainty.

      Joseph Nye took time out of a frantic schedule to read my first draft and to offer detailed feedback, which proved indispensable as I refined my arguments and produced the final version. Graham Allison urged me to follow my intuition that great-power competition was underspecified, stressing that policy can be only as thoughtful as the constructs underpinning it are rigorous. Joe and Graham have been my foremost mentors and champions for the better part of the past two decades, and I hope they will see in this book the intellectual seeds they have planted in me.

      Two seminars were essential in helping me stress-test and refine my initial arguments. First, Bruce Jones of the Brookings Institution arranged and hosted a discussion with William Burke-White, Tarun Chhabra, Alexandre Marc, William Moreland, and Thomas Wright on June 29, 2020. In addition, Tom took time to participate in a written exchange with me from February to June 2020, on Pairagraph, a vibrant platform that convenes debates on the pressing issues of the day. Second, Sarah Donahue and Grace Headinger of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs arranged and Aditi Kumar hosted a discussion held on July 27, 2020 with some two dozen individuals from across the Belfer network. William d’Ambruoso, Steven Miller, Mina Mitreva, and Jane Perlez all sent detailed written feedback after the session.

I also benefited enormously from conversations with scholars, journalists, editors, and past and present public servants: Emma Ashford, Alyssa Ayres, Caroline Baxter, Robert Blackwill, Brian Blankenship, Nicholas Burns, William Burns, Jessica Chen Weiss, Elbridge Colby, Bernard Cole, Ivo Daalder, Richard Danzig, Benjamin Denison, Abraham Denmark, Rhys Dubin, Naz El-Khatib, Alexandra Evans, Richard Fontaine, Daniel Franklin, Lawrence Freedman, Uri Friedman, Michael Fullilove, John Gans, Francis Gavin, Andrew Goodhart, Jorge Guajardo, Richard Haass, Ryan Hass, Kathleen Hicks, Fiona Hill, Frank Hoffman, Timothy Hoyt, John Ikenberry, Van Jackson, Elsa Kania, Mara Karlin, Michael Kofman, Daniel Kurtz-Phelan, Mark Leonard, Jessica Libertini, Rebecca Lissner, Kelly Magsamen, Hunter Marston, Michael Mazarr, Michael McFaul, Shivshankar Menon, Jim Mitre, Daniel Nexon, Meghan O’Sullivan, Yashar Parsie, Robert Person, Sara Plana, Ionut Popescu, Patrick Porter, Christopher Preble, Mira Rapp-Hooper, Gregory Sanders, Nadia Schadlow, Anne-Marie Slaughter, Constanze Stelzenmüller, Stephen Walt, Odd Arne Westad, and Gavin Wilde.

      Many individuals gave me writing opportunities that allowed me to articulate initial versions of the various arguments I have attempted to weave together: David Barboza, Samuel Bresnick, Daniel Byman, Sarah Canna, Evan Corcoran, Daniel Flitton, Stéphanie Giry, Judah Grunstein, Jacob Heilbrunn, Susan Jakes, Sahar Khan, Alex Lennon, Kathleen Miles, James Palmer, Sam Roggeveen, and Shannon Tiezzi.

      Many others, in addition, gave me speaking opportunities: Bunmi Akinnusotu, John Amble, Wardah Amir, Christopher Ankersen, George Beebe, Colonel Jason (“JP”) Clark, Mick Cook, Meaghan Fulco, Eric Gomez, Nikolas Gvosdev, Paul Haenle, Mark Hannah, Grant Haver, Laicie Heeley, Liam Kraft, Kaiser Kuo, Thomas Lynch, Katherine Mansted, Jennifer Mustapha, Captain Antony Palocaren, Ankit Panda, Johannes Perterer, Asad Rafi, Derek Reveron, Stephen Saideman, Kori Schake, Patricia Schouker, and Ben Watson.

      Cliff Kupchan supported this project from the moment I began working at Eurasia Group, and he generously permitted me to take a sabbatical to complete a first draft. Ian Bremmer has nurtured about as stimulating and enriching an environment as one can imagine for those who are trying to process tectonic shifts in geopolitics.

      Meg Guliford introduced me to Katerina (Kat) Kakkis in mid-2019, when Kat was an undergraduate student at Tufts University. Although I brought Kat on board as a research assistant, she soon became a colleague, critiquing every chapter thoroughly and supplying a steady stream of trenchant insights that helped me develop my perspectives on great-power competition. I am excited to see what the future has in store for her.

I submitted my final proposal on February 11, 2020 and received a contract from Polity on February 28, not knowing how profoundly a new virus—still quite contained at the time—would go on to shape our world. My sister and I decamped from Washington, DC to Fredericksburg, VA on March 13, to ride out the pandemic with our parents, and I returned shortly after submitting the final draft. My mother, father, and sister watched as our study room transformed from a tidy den into something of a hazard zone, as my research materials steadily occupied more and more space. They gave me the room (literally and figuratively) that I needed for thinking and the support that I needed for finishing. It is to my beloved family—Ammi, Abbu, and Zaahira—that I owe my greatest debt and I dedicate this book.