Climate Change – A Law Of Nature. Fabian Brunner

to future German governments for shaping legislation, a new development in German history which has remained unique throughout the world to date. It is true that the judgment also refers to the leeway available for shaping legislation but it also basically creates a duty under the German constitution which can be enforced by litigation. The consequences for the country are currently unforeseeable. From a present-day perspective, it is both inefficient and ineffective to wish to lay down binding national annual carbon dioxide emission limits for future generations. The next few years will simply bring too many economic and technical changes and innovations for it to be possible to lay down binding limits of this type. There is even a risk that the judgment of the Federal Constitutional Court will prevent reached or at least seriously impede certain innovative development paths.

      Quite apart from these considerations, the judgment by Germany’s highest court ignores the global character of global warming. In 2021, the German share in worldwide carbon dioxide emissions is less than 2 percent. China, the USA and India together reached about 50 percent. If Germany achieves the goals of the Paris climate agreement, this will therefore be of secondary importance for the global climate. However, if the development potential of future generations is to be determined to this extent and the freedoms enjoyed by citizens are to be restricted so severely, it will be essential for the citizens of a democracy or their elected representatives to be able to revisit objectives and to reach other conclusions on the measures to be taken and the priorities to be assigned in the light of new findings.

      Furthermore, public discussions in Germany have largely ignored the price to be paid for this focus on climate protection. For example, it must be mentioned that electric power and the affordability of electric power are among the key competition factors for an industrial country and that the total cost of supplying electricity from renewable sources is especially high (at least in the present situation). Similarly, the rejection by an entire nation of conventional power generation using fossil fuels (coal, gas, nuclear fuel) of the type practiced throughout the world is an experiment which still has an open outcome, at least as regards security of supply. Furthermore, the changeover to energy supplies based solely on renewable energy sources for covering power demand will call for many times more generating capacity compared with conventional technology; land use for power generation will therefore also be considerably higher. Another factor to be considered is the possibility that the production, construction, operation, dismantling and disposal of wind turbines and solar panels will or at least may also have a negative impact on plants and animals.

      It is certainly legitimate for a country to pursue the ideal of a decarbonized society but it should be made transparent that this goal is more than “just” climate protection and will cost considerably more than the famous ice cream cone mentioned by Jürgen Trittin, then German Environment Minister, on July 30, 2004: “Supporting renewable energies will still cost an average household just 1 euro a month - the price of an ice-cream cone.“⁸ This will be all the more important if the German energy transition becomes a European climate protection program, the “Green Deal”, especially as a result of German efforts. It is at least disingenuous to present the energy transition and the Green Deal as a highly promising way for the German economy or the European continent to achieve climate neutrality without sacrificing prosperity to any significant extent.⁹

      The real stress test for the energy transition will be to meet the electric power demand of Germany or Europe reliably and in a cost-optimized way primarily from renewable sources, which has not been the case to date. The fossil power plants are still in operation. And the price tickets that have been announced are already beyond imagination, or at least the imagination of the author. For example, the EU Commission has announced, with reference to the European green deal, that one trillion euros will need to be invested to combat the climate crisis by 2030, corresponding to 100 billion euros per year.¹⁰ This is an amount that , a) will need to be earned, b) will not be available for other socially relevant tasks and c) is so large that it would definitely have called for a consensus within society. Considering the fact that affordable, reliable energy supplies are critical success factors for an industrial nation and that energy-intensive industries will be forced by high electricity costs to relocate to countries outside Europe with lower costs and lower environmental standards, the complexity of the decision in favor of the energy transition and the Green Deal becomes clear.

      The framework defined for the energy industry plays a part in shaping the structure of an economy and the social context of a country. At least in Germany, it has become increasingly clear over the past few years that the connection between high electricity prices (for consumers) and energy policy is gaining importance on the political agenda and that political and social pressure is being created. For example, especially for low-income households, German energy policy increasingly represents a significant cost burden and entails a perceptible loss of purchasing power. “We need a brake on inflation that operates and is effective at many points. For example… In the case of energy costs, where the state is often a price driver. We finally need an electricity price cut of the type that has been promised. … Politicians can and must revoke the price increases for example for heating energy and replace them by a climate policy that is effective and affordable,” said Dr. Dietmar Bartsch, Chairman of the Left Party Fraction in the German Bundestag during the Bundestag election campaign in 2021.¹¹

      It is normal practice for politicians to adopt balanced regulatory policies with a view to leveling out such distorting effects. However, as we will see in the course of the book, the standards set by German energy policy are to a very large extent responsible for this distortion. At this point, it should be emphasized that climate change is definitely a key, essential challenge to the human race. It is also undisputed that there can be no quick and easy answers to such a complex, multifaceted topic. It will therefore be necessary to define measures to effectively combat climate change. However, the measures chosen will largely determine how effectively and efficiently politicians deal with this problem.

      In order to gain an overview of the many questions arising, this book offers a clear view of what “energy transition” and “Green Deal” specifically mean, what consequences can probably be derived and how German climate protection efforts can be considered in the international context as well as how other economies or their energy industries have adapted to the universal challenge that is climate change. It is worth considering these matters as the measures taken in the name of climate protection will affect society and the economy for many years and shape the lives of future generations.^12/13

      In order to ensure a clear structure, this book operates with cascades of questions – questions arising from the internal logic of the individual topics, for example with respect to the key role of carbon dioxide with respect to the climate. In this context, the author refers extensively to information available on the Internet and has quoted such information to the best of his knowledge and belief. To ensure greater readability, some quotations have been made which also include preceding sentences – in contravention of normal academic practice –, if there is a connection between the sense of the sentences. At this point, I would like to thank the authors of the many Internet contributions which I have quoted which I could not name in person as these contributions were published anonymously.