Cindynics, The Science of Danger. Guy Planchette

de Fonctionnement-Management-Cindyniques.

      As a key player, the Institute’s vocation is to help companies and public bodies to adopt a preventive approach when studying situations where threats and opportunities are intertwined. To do so, the Institute studies various methods and tools to identify, evaluate, quantify, prioritize, control and manage feared events in order to transform possible damage into benefits. This approach is intended to be systemic and global: systemic, because the nature of the dysfunctions or deficits can be technical, documentary, organizational, behavioral, environmental and so on; global, because it must encompass all organizational functions (technical, financial, legal, etc.).

      Bringing together the skills of both associations, the IMdR now offers its members a forum for exchange on risk management, from political and strategic visions to concrete, everyday scientific tools.

       The qualities of the IMdR are based on:

       – the dynamism of the 20 or so of its working groups;

       – the elaboration of studies carried out in the form of projects commissioned by industrialists;

       – meetings: theme days or breakfasts, the congress on risk management and operational safety (Lambdamu) and, alternately, the congress with a cindynics theme (Les Entretiens du Risque);

       – an Orientation, Documentation and Information Center (Centre d’Orientation, de Documentation et d’Informations, CODIT) that welcomes and guides through all of the specialized documentation;

       – the quality of its relations with all of its partners.

       The advantages of the IMdR include:

       – its capacity for sharing acquired over more than 20 years, thanks to its experience in bringing together several companies around studies chosen by them. Thus, the Institute offers them the guarantee of knowledge sharing, lower financial investment and partnership;

       – its monitoring and benchmarking approach, which makes it possible to have knowledge of the methods used by other sectors, as well as the analyses established following serious events;

       – its network of experts, which is based on their high existing potential in terms of dependability and cindynics, both in the industrial and service sectors and in university laboratories. These experts bring a real dynamism to the IMdR’s 20 or so working groups;

       – its symposia, study days and training courses, which allow a wide dissemination of ideas and concepts of risk management in a warm atmosphere facilitating the exchange and appropriation of knowledge;

       – its technical information center, which holds a large library capitalizing on years of studies on dependability, risk analysis, risk control and cindynics;

       – its openness on a European level, thanks to contacts with European associations dealing with the same subjects.

      Note

      1 1 Air Liquide, CEA, CNES, Dassault, EADS, EDF, Ligeron, PSA, RATP, Renault, SNCF, Technicatome, Thales and Schneider.

      Foreword

      For many years now, the latest books on cindynics have been published by the publisher Economica: the French books "Cindyniques – Concepts et mode d’emploi” [KER 07], and an application to the health sector “Cindyniques et santé – Contributions des sciences du danger à la santé” [FES 09]. In other words, this book is welcome because, since the 2000s, cindynics have been the subject of numerous studies and research activities, both at the Institut pour la Maîtrise des Risques in the framework of the working and reflection groups “Les cindyniques à la portée de tous” and “Gestion des risques, cindyniques et nouvelles approches systémiques dans le secteur de la santé”,, and in the academic world, at the Université Paris 5 and the École des Mines de Paris, to mention a few.

      This book was written by experts from different sectors of industry, health and transport. It was an ambitious goal to achieve it and it has been achieved. We would like to thank them for this work and for its publication.

      The text includes a very useful glossary explaining the difficult words or expressions used in the vocabulary of cindynics, such as deficit, dissonance and activity situation, among many others.

Under the heading hazard, the book points out that the ISO 31000: 2018 standard uses the term risk source to qualify the hazard. In practice, the terms hazard and risk are often used interchangeably. However, they are two quite distinct terms. According to the Longman Dictionary of Contemporary English (1978, p. 278), hazard is the possibility of harm or loss, which can threaten safety/security. Hazard is a potential, it expresses a possibility, which may occur depending on conditions, depending on the context, which may not necessarily be realized, something virtual. Risk is the likelihood that exposure to a hazard will lead to a negative consequence. It is measured by the coupling of the values of the likelihood of a given danger and the seriousness of the consequences of this hazard. Quite simply, there is no risk if there is no exposure to a hazard. Risk therefore has a negative image. However, the standard has introduced the positive consequence aspects of risk. “To win you have to risk losing” (Jean-Claude Killy).

      The foreword is based on a curve of accident rate trends from 1987 to 2016, showing a decrease in accident rates until 2003–2004, followed by a seemingly asymptotic constant plateau, a tango on the asymptote [FRA 04]. Technical advances have allowed this rate to decrease over the years. Today’s accidents show that we have now reached a threshold that would be insurmountable, calling into question the organization of work. We can now see that all too often the failure to take into account feedback and the lack of understanding of physical phenomena are two deficits frequently revealed by analyses of recent technological accidents.

      The organization is a complex system and all vulnerabilities must be identified.

      The cindynics approach seems well armed to deal with this problem.

      Chapter 1 is devoted to the understanding of cindynics. It defines the notion of activity situation by its contexts and by the activity (a movement), characterizes it, detects evolutions, whether observed or not, and evaluates gaps or inconsistencies. In the end, we are very close to the practice of a HAZOP method or imaginative, but knowledge-based investigation, akin to Sherlock Holmes.

      The hazard hyperspace represents the five characteristics of risk sources: data, models, regulations, values and purposes. The process consists of conducting interviews with experts, consulting existing documentation or feedback, analyzing the content and structuring potential risk sources, identifying and analyzing gaps, and establishing a synthesis matrix known as the deficit and dissonance matrix. This is probably the strong feature of cindynics. Thanks to this analysis based on the five characteristics above, it is possible to highlight all of the sources of risk, particularly those related to the organization, which is not necessarily possible in the usual analyses.

      The applications at the end of the book show that the approach is fully applicable for a posteriori analyses. The authors believe that it is also applicable a priori. However, this may be more difficult. For example, for the analysis of an innovative product, regulations do not exist, few data are usable and models may be non-validated or non-existent.

      Chapter 2 describes the methodology:

       – first, activity situations are characterized. It is a question of specifying the temporal horizon, the spatial and geographical horizons, the context and the networks of actors;

       – dangerous situations are constructed