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Table of Contents

      1  Cover

      2  Title

      3  Copyright

      4  Acknowledgments

      5  Presentation of the Institut pour la Maîtrise des Risques (French Institute for Risk Management)

      6  Foreword

      7  Preface

      8  1 Understanding Cindynics 1.1. The approach 1.2. The method 1.3. The tools 1.4. Processes

      9  2 The Usefulness of the Cindynics Approach and Method 2.1. The situation, the founding concept of cindynics 2.2. Characterizing an activity situation 2.3. Qualifying a dangerous situation within an activity situation

      10  3 The Usefulness of Cindynics Tools 3.1. Qualification grid for risk sources that are not easily identifiable 3.2. Describing this type of risk source

      11  4 Reducing Risk Sources

      12  5 A Comparative View Between Dependability and Cindynics 5.1. Introduction 5.2. What is a complex system? 5.3. Dependability approach – its strengths and limitations 5.4. The cindynics approach 5.5. Conflict or complementarity of the two approaches 5.6. Conclusion

      13  6 Perspectives

      14  Conclusion

      15  Examples of Approaches

      16  Appendix 1. Current Risk Management and its Shortcomings

      17  Appendix 2. Notions of Interaction and Complexity

      18  Appendix 3. The Grounded Theorization Method

      19  Appendix 4. Notions of Quantum Theory

      20  Appendix 5. Summary of CSDs

      21  Appendix 6. Archeocindynic Study

      22  Appendix 7. Bhopal Study

      23  Appendix 8. More Information About Bhopal

      24  Appendix 9. Collection of Information on the Queen Mary II Gangway Accident

      25  Appendix 10. Queen Mary Accident Cause Tree

      26  Appendix 11. Collection of Information on the Deepwater Horizon Oil Rig Accident

      27  Appendix 12. Synthesis Note of the Work of IMdR–AFPCN: “Vulnerability of Networks and Natural Disasters”

      28  Appendix 13. The New Cindynics Concepts Training Course

      29  Postface

      30  Glossary

      31  References

      32  Index

      33  End User License Agreement

      List of Tables

      1 Chapter 4Table 4.1. Sample deficit matrixTable 4.2. Example of a dissonance matrix

      2 Examples of ApproachesTable E.1. Hyperspace of the actor Union Carbide (UC). Temporal horizon: 1957–19...Table E.2. Actor: “India and Authorities”. Temporal horizon: 1957–1980Table E.3. Actors, employees and 8.1.4. UC India, stakeholder, period 1980–1984Table E.4. Actors: Union Carbide – October 3 and 4, 1984Table E.5. Comparison between baseline and observed situationsTable E.5. Actor: CAT managementTable E.6. Actor: CAT works coordinatorTable E.7. Actor: head of the ENDEL agencyTable E.8. Actor: ENDEL site managerTable E.9. Systemic deficitsTable E.10. Actor: BP – expected behaviorTable E.11. Actor: BP – observed behavior

      3 Appendix 5Table A5.1. Summary of CSDs

      4 Appendix 7Table A7.1. Causal and linear analysis by J. and R. Kasperson

      List of Illustrations

      1 PrefaceFigure P.1. Changes in annual passenger fatality and death rates in scheduled se...

      2 Chapter 2Figure 2.1. T₀ to T_n: studied space-time = time horizon; E: space horizon; A1 to...Figure 2.2. Defining an activity situation. For a color version of this figure, ...Figure 2.3. Representation of a dangerous situation. For a color version of this...

      3 Chapter