The Next Revolution in our Credit-Driven Economy. Schulte Paul

pick up a copy of this book do so at their peril.

– Bhaskar Chakravorti, senior associate dean of International Business and Finance, the Fletcher School at Tufts University; founding executive director, Institute for Business in the Global Context

      Schulte has a rare gift for explaining in simple terms the extraordinary importance of banks, credit, and regulators in modern economies – how their irresponsible behavior has devastated lives, toppled governments, and collapsed economies the world over. He adds to this some provocative thoughts on the future of banks and credit in a bit-driven world, posing the question of whether banks as we know them will survive the challenges of the digital revolution. Schulte depicts banking and its uncertain future with rare clarity.

– James Stent, external supervisor, China Everbright Banking Corporation

      The Next Revolution in our Credit-Driven Economy

       The Advent of Financial Technology

      PAUL SCHULTE

      Copyright © 2015 by John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd.

      Published by John Wiley & Sons Singapore Pte. Ltd.

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       Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

      Schulte, Paul, 1963-

      The next revolution in our credit-driven economy: the advent of financial technology / Paul Schulte.

      pages cm

      Includes index.

      ISBN 978-1-118-98960-9 (hardback), 978-1-118-98962-3 (ePDF), and 978-1-118-98961-6 (e-pub)

      1. Banks and banking. 2. Bank loans. 3. Credit. 4. Financial services industry–Information technology. I. Title.

      HG1601.S38 2015

      332–dc23

      2015008523

      Cover image: revolutionary fist © Christos Georghiou / Shutterstock

      Cover design: Wiley

To Rob Citrone, Eric Bushell, Adam Levinson, and David Halpert – four pairs of sturdy shoulders on which to stand

      Whoever controls the volume of credit in any country is absolute master of all industry and commerce.

– James A. Garfield, 20th President of the United States

      O Fortune

      Like the moon you are changeable,

      Ever waxing and waning.

      Hateful Life first destroys wealth and then gives abundance

      As Fantasy takes over.

      Poverty and power are, in turn, melted like ice.

– Carl Orff, “O Fortuna,” Carmina Burana

      Acknowledgments

      This book has been ripening in my head for several years during the literally thousands of meetings I've had with hedge fund managers, mutual fund managers, and policy makers in central banks, as well as ministers and senior bureaucrats in national development entities on five continents. In addition, when I worked for the Minister of Finance of Indonesia and spent two years working at the White House in Ronald Reagan's second administration, I received a “behind the scenes” look at the way in which this thing called monetary policy is made. It is always a mix of politics, accommodation to bankers, a desire to keep ahead of the guy across the pond, spurious national security considerations, and mostly back-of-the-envelope calculations.

      That said, over the years a few very smart people in the money management business have challenged me to leave my comfort zone and push forward into the unknown to answer some thorny questions. And sometimes they have inspired me to write the unpleasant truth about financial markets, which, while working in the crocodilian world of investment banking, had put my career as an analyst at risk from time to time.

      So I would like to mention a few of these people who have coerced me to lay it all on the line. Dave Dredge, in particular, has been a great mentor over the past 25 years. Jeremy Kranz has been a wonderful interlocutor. Amit Rajpal has been a great sounding board and I consider him the best bank analyst around. Other intellectual leaders who have helped me are Gao Xiqing, Byron Gill, David Courtney, Chris Mikosh, Jack Malvey, Alex Muncerow, Frank Wang, Tomonori Tani, Simon Ogus, and Todd Tibbetts, a great friend for the past 25 years. A very special thanks goes to Fred Feldkamp, who was gracious enough to go through every line of the book and bring out some vitally important conclusions that were lying just beyond the horizon but were not visible to me from the map room. In addition, I am very grateful to Jim Stent, one of the smartest commercial bankers I have met in my 25 years in Asia. Without fear or favor, he went through the book line by line and made valuable changes.

      Thanks to Gavin Liu and Christian Ng for editing and fact checking.

      About the Author

      Paul Schulte has his own consulting firm called Schulte Research. He is a 25-year veteran of equity and fixed income research in Wall Street firms. He is a Senior Fellow at the Council on Emerging Market Enterprises at the Fletcher School at Tufts University. He has been a Visiting Scholar at Hong Kong University of Science & Technology for eight years. He is also a Visiting Scholar at the University of Hong Kong. He has taught in MBA programs in China, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Brazil, and lives in Hong Kong. He previously worked at the National Security Council in Washington, D.C. His other books are Cravings for Deliverance and Healing Weary Hearts.

      About the Website

      Please visit this book's companion website at www.wiley.com/go/Schulte to access learning tools that provide additional coverage of the material presented in each of their respective chapters.

      The password for downloading the files is: fintech15

      List of slides available on the website:

      ● 01_Credit_Master.pdf

      ●