Насильственная демократизация. Поддержка оппозиционных движений правительством США. Уилл Ирвин

“Does the Academy Matter,” Foreign Policy, March 15, 2014, режим доступа: 23 июня 2016 г., http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/03/15/does-the-academy- matter/. Согласно исследованию журнала «Форин Полиси», проведенному силами 234 высокопоставленных членов правительства, «история» стоит первой в списке шести академических дисциплин, на которые опираются те, кто ведет политику государства; в этом списке также находятся экономика, политология, государственное управление, международные дела, а также регионоведение. Участникам исследования также было предложено голосованием выбрать самую эффективную из восьми исследовательских методологий: теоретический анализ, квантитативный анализ, анализ политики, регионоведение, разбор исторических примеров, разбор современных исследований, формальные модели, исследование операций. Результаты опроса выявили следующую картину предпочтительности методологий – в порядке убывания: регионоведение, разбор современных примеров, разбор исторических примеров, анализ политики.

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      Ryan Crocker, комментарий на заседании комиссии по освободительным движениям корпорации «РЭНД», г. Арлингтон, штат Вирджиния, 3 февраля 2017 г.

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      Stanley McChrystal et al., Team of Teams: New Rules of Engagement for a Complex World (New York, NY: Portfolio, 2015), 28.

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      Stansfield Turner, “Challenge! A New Approach to a Professional Education at the Naval War College,” Naval War College Review 25, no. 2 (November/December 1972), 4.

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      Paul A. Jureidini et al., Casebook of Insurgency and Revolutionary Warfare: 23 Summary Accounts, rev. ed. (Washington, D.C.: Special Operations Research Office, The American University, 1962, rev. ed. 2013), 69.

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      Christopher Paul et al., Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insurgencies (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2013); Ben Connable and Martin C. Libicki, How Insurgencies End (Santa Monica, CA: RAND, 2010); Paul A. Jureidini et al., Casebook of Insurgency and Revolutionary Warfare: 23 Summary Accounts, rev. ed. (Washington, D.C.: Special Operations Research Office, The American University, 1962, rev. ed. 2013); Paul J. Tompkins, Jr. and Chuck Crossett, eds., Casebook on Insurgency and Revolutionary Warfare: Volume II, 1962–2009 (Fort Bragg, NC: U.S. Army Special Operations Command and The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory, 2012); Erica Chenoweth and Maria J. Stephan, Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of Nonviolent Conflict (New York: Columbia University Press, 2011); and Gene Sharp, Waging Nonviolent Struggle: 20^th Century Practice and 21st Century Potential (Boston: Extending Horizons Books, 2005).

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      См. разъяснения к данным условиям в: Unconventional Warfare, Joint Publication 3-05.1 (Washington, D.C.: Joint Chiefs of Staff, 2015), I-4-I-5.

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      David Tucker and Christopher J. Lamb, United States Special Operations Forces (New York: Columbia University Press, 2007), 162.

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      David C. Gompert and Hans Binnendijk, The Power to Coerce: Countering Adversaries Without Going to War (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2016), 24–25.

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      William J. Daugherty, Executive Secrets: Covert Action and the Presidency (Lexington: The University Press of Kentucky, 2006), xiii-xiv.

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      Daugherty, Executive Secrets, xiii-xiv.

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      См., напр., Torrey Taussig, “The Rise of Personalist Rule,” Brookings Institution website post, 23 March 2017; Ian Bremmer, “The Strongman Era,” Time, 14 May 2018; Garry Kasparov and Thor Halvorssen, “Why the Rise of Authoritarianism is a Global Catastrophe,” The Washington Post, 13 February 2017; Amanda Taub, “How Autocrats Can Triumph in Democratic Countries,” The New York Times, 18 April 2017; Ari Shapiro interview with Larry Diamond, “Decline in Democracy Spreads Across the Globe as Authoritarian Leaders Rise,” NPR’s All Things Considered broadcast, 3 August 2017; Maria J. Stephan and Timothy Snyder, “Authoritarianism is Making a Comeback,” The Guardian, 20 June 2017; Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz, “How Democracies Fall Apart,” Foreign Affairs, 5 December 2016; and Larry Diamond, “Democracy in Decline,” Foreign Affairs, July/August 2016. Свежие публикации: the May/June 2018 issue of Foreign Affairs includes: Ronald Inglehart, “The Age of Insecurity: Can Democracy Save Itself?”; Yascha Mounk and Roberto Stefan Foa, “The End of the Democratic Century: Autocracy’s Global Ascendance;” Ivan Krastev, “East- ern Europe’s Illiberal Revolution: The Long Road to Democratic Decline;” and Elizabeth C. Economy, “China’s New Revolution: The Reign of Xi Jinping.”

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      Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Erica Frantz, “How Democracies Fall Apart: Why Populism Is a Pathway to Autocracy,” Foreign Affairs, 5 December 2016.

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      James F. Dobbins, Foreign Service: Five Decades on the Frontlines of American Diplomacy (Washington, D.C.: Brookings Institution Press, 2017), 211.

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      Ronald Inglehart, “The Age of Insecurity: Can Democracy Save Itself,” Foreign Affairs, May/June 2018, 20.

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      Torrey Taussig, “The Rise of Personalist Rule,” Brookings Institution website post, 23 March 2017.

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      Thomas S. Szayna et al., Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections (Santa Monica: RAND Corporation, 2017), 28–30.

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      U.S. Army Special Operations Command, Unconventional Warfare Pocket Guide, v1.0, 5 April 2016, 5.

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      James Callanan, Covert Action in the Cold War: U.S. Policy, Intelligence, and CIA Operations (London: I.B. Tauris, 2010), 47.

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      Callanan, Covert Action, 47.

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