Fateful Transitions. Daniel M. Kliman

      

       Fateful Transitions

       FATEFUL TRANSITIONS

       How Democracies Manage Rising Powers, from the Eve of World War I to China’s Ascendance

      Daniel M. Kliman

      UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA PRESS

      PHILADELPHIA

      A volume in the Haney Foundation Series, established in 1961 with the generous support of Dr. John Louis Haney

      Copyright © 2015 University of Pennsylvania Press

      All rights reserved. Except for brief quotations used for purposes of review or scholarly citation, none of this book may be reproduced in any form by any means without written permission from the publisher.

      Published by

      University of Pennsylvania Press

      Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19104-4112

      Printed in the United States of America on acid-free paper

      10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1

      Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

      Kliman, Daniel M.

      Fateful transitions : how democracies manage rising powers, from the eve of World War I to China’s ascendance / Daniel M. Kliman. — 1st ed.

      p. cm.

      Includes bibliographical references and index

      ISBN 978-0-8122-4653-7 (hardcover : alk. paper)

      1. International relations. 2. International relations—Case studies. 3. Security, International. 4. Security, International—Case studies. 5. Great Powers. 6. Great Powers—Case studies.

      JZ1242 .K59 2014

327.09'04

2014012349

       Contents

       List of Abbreviations

       Chapter 1: Fateful Transitions

       Chapter 2: Power Shifts and Strategy

       Chapter 3: Pax Britannica Eclipsed

       Chapter 4: Germany Resurgent

       Chapter 5: Red Star Rising

       Chapter 6: Emerging Superpower

       Chapter 7: Neighboring Titan

       Chapter 8: Implications for the Twenty-First Century

       Appendix 1: Omitted Cases

       Appendix 2: Coding Checks and Balances

       Appendix 3: Measuring Freedom of the Press

       Notes

       Bibliography

       Index

       Acknowledgments

       Abbreviations

ASAT	Anti-Satellite
ASEAN	Association of Southeast Asian Nations
DPJ	Democratic Party of Japan
EEZ	Exclusive Economic Zone
G-20	Group of 20
GDP	Gross Domestic Product
IMF	International Monetary Fund
JMSDF	Japan Maritime Self-Defense Forces
JSDF	Japan Self-Defense Forces
LDP	Liberal Democratic Party
MFA	Ministry of Foreign Affairs (China)
MMCA	Military Maritime Consultative Agreement
MTCR	Missile Technology Control Regime
NATO	North Atlantic Treaty Organization
NIC	National Intelligence Council
PLA	People’s Liberation Army
QDR	Quadrennial Defense Review
R&D	Research and Development
RAF	Royal Air Force
SED	Strategic Economic Dialogue
S&ED	Strategic and Economic Dialogue
S&T	Science and Technology
UN	United Nations
USSR	Union of Soviet Socialist Republics
WTO	World Trade Organization

       Chapter 1

       Fateful Transitions

      An age-old question—how to manage the rise of new powers—looms large for the United States, Europe, and much of Asia. Although the nature of the emerging international order remains unclear, the geopolitics of the twenty-first century has earlier parallels. Since the late 1800s, the world’s major democracies have repeatedly navigated the ascendance of other nations. The choices made by democratic leaders during these fateful transitions have profoundly shaped the course of history. On the positive side, these decisions paved the way for the Anglo-American rapprochement; on the negative side, the path taken culminated in World War I, World War II, and the Cold War. This track record of limited success should give today’s leaders pause as they confront a world increasingly