VIVO Voice-In / Voice-Out. William Crossman

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      “Audacious and mind-stretching, Crossman sees our reliance on the printed word coming rapidly to an honorable end. He offers valuable reassurances about our humanistic prospects after the book has faded in use. He invites us to imagine co-existence with very ‘smart’ equipment in an oral culture that sounds very rewarding. His original scenario warrants open-minded consideration by all who appreciate the thoroughness of the extraordinary on-going changes we must turn to advantage.” –Arthur B. Shostak, Professor of Sociology and Director, Center for Employment Futures, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

      “William Crossman’s VIVO [Voice-In/Voice-Out] is a welcome addition to the discussion about voice-recognition technology and the social implications of talking computers.” –Edward Cornish, President, World Future Society, Bethesda, Maryland

      “If you are an educator, you need to read this book. Every day we see students fail at skills we value and succeed at skills we dismiss. What William Crossman sees, however, is an evolutionary step forward, the shift from alphabetic culture to an electronic-oral future that will offer many liberations. Of course educators are notorious cynics and hand-wringers, except for the genuinely visionary ones; William Crossman may be one of those. Whether, ultimately, he’s right or not, the future he envisions will challenge your cynicism and might even shake your despair.” –Les Gottesman, Director of General Education, Golden Gate University, San Francisco, California

      “Futures thinking is about presenting creative and courageous ideas challenging our basic thought-patterns which are considered as self-evident. William Crossman’s book about the rising oral culture with the help of talking computers is doing exactly that!” –Dr. Mika Mannermaa, President, Futures Studies Mannermaa Ltd., Docent in Futures Research, Turku School of Economics, Finland

      “Talking computers replace written language? ‘Not on my watch,’ I cry to my shelves of books. But I was raised in a different technological age. So, like it or not, I need to account for my students’ attitudes towards reading and writing and to understand how they may gain access to the information, ideas and resources they will need far into the 21st Century. While William Crossman’s ideas aren’t ones I want to hear, they are provocative in ways that force us to consider a future which will not look like the past we have come from. This book should generate discussions critical to our students’ futures.” –Jean Miller, Professor of English, DeAnza Community College, Cupertino, California

      “While preparing a paper for a conference on the idea that writing (but not to the same extent reading) is about to become largely obsolete, I came across your paper in The Futurist, and now your institute. I am thrilled to see that you have explored these possibilities in great detail, and I will of course study and quote your work. My first question at this juncture is: Is your book out yet, or when will it be?” –Professor Dan Sperber, Directeur de Recherche, CNRS, Institut Jean Nicod (CNRS et EHESS), Paris, France; author, Explaining Culture

      “Futurist Jim Dator says that ‘Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous.’ Your concept of a totally verbal society and the death of the written word scandalized the writer in our group who verbalized how ridiculous it sounded. However, the more one reads, the stronger your case becomes. It has huge implications for the structure of society. Now it is the illiterate, the dyslexic and the blind who suffer from our emphasis on reading and writing. In 2050 it may be those who can not verbalize well who will be in the risk group!” –Natalie Dian, Futurist, Visionscentret Framtidsbygget AB, Göteborg, Sweden

       VIVO [Voice-In/Voice-Out]

       VIVO [Voice-In/Voice-Out]

       The Coming Age of Talking Computers

       William Crossman

      Copyright © 2004 William Crossman

      All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means electronic, digital, mechanical, photocopied, recorded, or otherwise without the prior written permission of the author.

      To contact William Crossman and/or the CompSpeak 2050 Institute for the Study of Talking Computers and Oral Cultures, go to website <www.compspeak2050.org>.

      First Printing 2004

      Publisher’s Cataloging-in-Publication

      Crossman, William.

      VIVO (voice-in/voice-out) : the coming age of

      talking computers / William Crossman.

      p. cm.

      Includes bibliographical references and index.

      LCCN 2004093358

      ISBN 1-58790-100-5

      1. Information society--Forecasting. 2. Speech

      processing systems--Social aspects. I. Title.

      HM851.C76 2004 303.48’33

      QBI04-200238

      Cover design by Roslyn Abraham and William Crossman, with assistance from Barbara Barnett and Rudy Lemcke. Credit also to the photographers whose photos adorn the cover.

      Typesetting and graphics by Roslyn Abraham, D.G. Park, and Lauren Agresti.

      Articles by William Crossman based on ideas in this book have appeared in numerous publications, including: Frontiers of the 21^st Century, Teaching and Learning in a Network World, World Forests and Technology, The Futurist, Community College Week, Good Weekend magazine—Sydney (AU) Morning Herald, Futura, The Next Twenty Years Futures, and Our World: The New Millennium. For a complete list, access the author’s website.

      Disclaimer: This book, its author William Crossman, and the CompSpeak 2050 Institute are not connected with and/or do not endorse any specific product, business, corporation, agency, institution, offline or online entity, website, or individual that is named or uses the words “Vivo,” “voice-in/voice-out,” “talking computer,” “Vivolutionary,” “compspeak,” or any other concept or word that appears in this book—except such as are created by, and/or are copyrighted by, and/or are held as intellectual property rights by, and/or are approved contractually in writing by William Crossman.

      Manufactured in the U.S.A.

      REGENT PRESS • 6020-A Adeline Street • Oakland, CA 94608 • www.regentpress.net

      To my dear mother, Estelle

      Special thanks to Lea Weinstein for her insightful comments on the manuscript. Thanks also to the following colleagues and friends whose constructive critiques, input, and efforts helped this book to reach completion: Roslyn Abraham, Barbara Barnett, Peter Bishop, Camo Bortman, Tony Cerazzo, Chinosole, Edward Cornish, Allan Crossman, Natalie Dian, Mickey Ellinger, Tom Frey, Chukk Garard, Les Gottesman, “Cassie Gray,” Ray Grott, Adele Hurvitz, Dan Johnson, Michael Larsen, Harry Lefever, Rudy Lemcke, Mika Mannermaa, Ann M. Marie, Clifton Marsh, Jean Miller, Michael Novick, D. G. Park, Art Shostak, John Smart, Dan Sperber, John Trimble, Mark Weiman, and Abigail Woodward. And thanks to the many students, conference participants, and others who discussed this book’s ideas with me over the years.

       Table of Contents

       Introduction

       Prologue

       No Words on Their Cereal Box: A Day in the Life of a