Non-Obvious 2017 Edition. Rohit Bhargava

them are far more human than we tend to admit.

      In early 2013, a PhD candidate named Beckie Port gathered and published 75 examples of scientists using the hilariously viral hashtag #overlyhonestmethods to share some brutally honest truths about the realities of scientific research.

      Among the compilation of tweets Port shared online were these entertaining sound bites:

       “Samples were prepared by our collaborators at MIT. We assumed no contamination because, well... they’re MIT #overlyhonestmethods” (@paulcoxon)

       “Our representative device is representative of the ones which didn’t immediately explode. #overlyhonestmethods” (@ajdecon)

       “Barbados was selected as a case study because the authors had a naive hope that it might justify some fieldwork there. #overlyhonestmethods” (@mlkubik)

       “We used jargon instead of plain English to prove that a decade of grad school and postdoc made us smart. #overlyhonestmethods” (@eperlste)

      Trends, like science, are not always perfectly observed phenomena that fit neatly into a spreadsheet to be described. Yet this doesn’t mean they don’t have immense value.

      Effective scientific research always involves great observation. Scientists learn to observe the results of their experiments and then work to describe them with hypothesis and proof as best they can.

      There are many similarities between trends and science, but this is only half the story. Discovering trends takes a willingness to combine curiosity with observation and add insight to create valuable ideas that you can then test to ensure they are valid.

      This is vastly different from the method we often mistakenly believe is behind most work with trends: “trend spotting.” This phrase itself is a symbol of the many myths we tend to believe about those who predict or describe trends.

      Let’s explore the five most common of these myths.

      The 5 Myths of Trend Spotting

      As a writer and speaker, I spend a lot of time seeking stories. When it comes to trends and predicting the future, the people who do this are often called “trend spotters.”

      Despite what you may have heard, learning trend spotting is not the key to predicting the future.

      Unfortunately, this trend-spotter bias has created a commonly referenced unreasonable portrait of the type of person who can predict the future. Consider this lazy definition for what it takes to become a trend spotter:

       To become a trend spotter, someone usually receives extensive education and training in the industry he or she is interested in working for. After receiving a thorough grounding in the mechanics and history of the industry, the trend spotter could start working in company departments which predicted trends, slowly working to the rank of an official trend spotter. (Wisegeek.com)

      The assumption that you need to be working in “company departments which predicted trends” is just plain idiotic – and wrong.

      Anyone can learn the right habits to become better at curating trends and predicting the future for themselves. You just need to develop the right habits and mindset.

      Before we start learning those habits, however, it is important to tackle the biggest myths surrounding trends and explain why they are so wrong.

      Myth #1: Trends are spotted.

      The idea of trend spotting suggests that there are trends simply sitting out there in plain sight ready to be observed and cataloged like avian species for bird watchers. The reality of trends is far different. Trend spotters typically find individual examples or stories. Calling the multitude of things they spot the same thing as trends is like calling eggs, flour and sugar sitting on a shelf the same thing as a cake. You can “spot” ingredients, but trends must be curated from these ingredients in order to have meaning.

      Myth #2: Trends are predicted by industry gurus/experts.

      It is tempting to see industry expertise as a prerequisite to being good at curating trends, but there is also a predictable drawback: blind spots. Put simply, the more you know about a particular topic, the more difficult it becomes to think outside your expertise and broaden your view. There is no single expertise required to curate trends, but Psychologists and business authors have long referred to this as the “curse of knowledge” and we all have it about something. To escape this “curse” you need to learn to engage your greater curiosity about the world beyond any industry to avoid any danger of industry-based tunnel vision.

      Myth #3: Trends are based on hard data.

      When it comes to research, some people rely on only numbers inserted into a spreadsheet as proof and they conveniently forget that there are two methods to conducting research: the quantitative method and the qualitative method. Qualitative research involves using observation and experience to gather mainly verbal data instead of results from experiments. If you are uncovering the perfect pH balance for shampoo, you definitely want to use quantitative research. For curating trends, you need a mixture of both and the ability to remember that research data can often be less valuable than really good observation.

      Myth #4: Trends only reflect current popularity.

      The line between trends and fads can be tricky. Although some trends seem to spotlight a currently popular story, good ones need to describe something that happens over a span of time. Fads, in comparison, describe an idea that is popular in the short term. Great trends do reflect a moment in time, but they also describe more than a fleeting moment.

      Myth #5: Trends are hopelessly broad predictions.

      Perhaps no other myth about trends is as fueled by reality as this one. The fact is, we encounter hopelessly broad trend predictions in the media all the time. The problem comes in treating those as indications that trends should be broad and all encompassing. Good trends tend to be more of the opposite. They define something that is concrete and distinct. Something that doesn’t apply to everyone, but rather offers a point of view that you can easily grasp and describe in a unique way.

      Now that I have shared five of the most common myths about trend predictions, we need to spend a brief moment considering why so many trend predictions involve self-indulgent guesswork or lazy thinking. What exactly makes them so useless?

      In order to illustrate, let me tell you a little story.

      Why (Most) Trend Predictions Are Useless

      Last December I picked up the year end edition of Entrepreneur magazine which promised to illuminate trends to watch in the coming year. Earlier that same week, a special double issue of BusinessWeek magazine had arrived in the mail making a similar promise.

      It was the end of the year and the trend season was in full swing.

      Just like New Year’s resolutions to lose weight, trend forecasting is popular in December. Unfortunately, the side effect of this annual media ritual is an abundance of lazy predictions and vague declarations.

      For entertainment over the years, I have started to collect them as standing memorials to the volume of pitiful predictions that bombarded us at the end of every year.

      To illustrate my point, here are a few of the worst offending most obvious “trends” shared near the end of last year. For the sake of kindness,

       I removed reference to which particular publication or writer a trend came from before listing them below:

       “It’s all about the visuals.”

       “Streaming video content.”

       “The