Mauro F. Guillen

2030: Cómo las tendencias actuales darán forma a un nuevo mundo

Mauro F. Guillen

El mundo cambia drásticamente día a día. ¿Estamos preparados para afrontar lo que viene?Hace pocos años, todos teníamos claro cómo funcionaba el mundo. Había naciones prósperas y rezagadas. Había una tasa de natalidad predecible, una edad para el retiro y la posibilidad de tener una casa propia. Un camino establecido para los profesionistas y trabajadores de todo tipo. Pero nadie nos advirtió que, cuando llegáramos a la edad de graduarnos, o de casarnos y de tener hijos, o de jubilarnos, las reglas habrían cambiado radicalmente.Como afirma Mauro F. Guillén en este libro provocador, para el año 2030 el mundo será completamente distinto del que aprendimos a conocer, habitar y asimilar. Con un enfoque basado en el pensamiento lateral, que propone abordar los problemas con creatividad y tomando en cuenta de forma simultánea diversos acercamientos y variables, el autor examina las tendencias que convergerán, y harán colisión, dentro de muy pocos años. De manera clara y fundada en una lectura profunda de la historia reciente, Guillén presenta un análisis revolucionario de los factores demográficos, económicos y tecnológicos que hacen que nuestra visión de la vida sea hoy especialmente frágil, sobre todo tras acontecimientos de impacto global duradero como la pandemia del Covid-19; y, de manera igualmente importante, propone las herramientas para conocer y afrontar el cambio venidero.

Rude Awakening

Mauro F. Guillen

In the wake of World War II, a number of institutions designed to promote a liberal global economic and geopolitical order were established—the International Monetary Fund, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (forerunner of the World Trade Organization), and the World Bank in the economic sphere, and the United Nations in the geopolitical realm. Although these organizations were far from perfect, their actions promoted rising living standards and political freedoms for all. Liberalism thus reengineered represented a fundamental bet on the supremacy of democracy and the market economy, and spurred the transformation of North America, Western Europe, and Japan into prosperous societies, each with a large and vibrant middle class and a social safety net. Now, however, this liberal geopolitical and economic order is under attack. The free movement of goods, services, money, people, and information that once formed the recipe for progress under liberalism is blamed by many for rising inequality, mass migrations, and the declining legitimacy of political parties, as well as the fragmentation of global superpower relations. Nationalism, xenophobia, and populism continue to advance at the right and left ends of the political spectrum, eroding the moderate middle ground. In Rude Awakening , Mauro F. Guillén argues for an improved international arrangement to provide for stability and prosperity. He offers key considerations that a reinvented global liberal order must address—from finding a balance between markets and governments to confronting present realities, such as rapid technological change and social inequality, to recognizing that Europe and the United States can no longer attempt by themselves to steer the global economy. Rude Awakening affirms the potential of liberalism still to provide a flexible framework for governments, businesses, workers, and citizens to explore and make necessary compromises and coalitions for a better future.